Stuff that requires varied physical work (not the same thing over and over like an assembly line) that also requires a bit of thought.

Such as a car mechanic. (Car mechanics may go away more due to cars becoming simpler laptop like devices you just plug in and unplug batteries/chips/sensors into, not because of AI)

but at the moment a mechanic for an ICE car. To replace this you'd need a humanoid robot that can maneuver all over a car, inside the engine bay, underneath etc. It'd need the physical power to undo bolts, but be delicate enough not to break plastics, glass etc.

It would need to parse questions and audio - a customer coming in saying "my car is knocking, can you find out why" - it would then need to be smart enough to know what is noise from the car, and what is noise from an adjacent car, or knocking from an adjecent worker hammering etc.

I can't see this happening for decades, at the moment we can barely build a humanoid robot that can pick up a package from a shelf, move it through a few rooms + doors, and put it in the back of a truck.

All of our current impressive AI relies on massive training data, such as alphastar being trained on billions of starcraft games, or GPT-4 being trained on billions of texts. How would you train a robot litterpicker or mechanic? Would you record every current car mechanic all day?

I can perhaps see jobs going through our world being made simpler. Such as 30 years ago computers were more complicated, a laptop cost $2000 and needed jumper settings, software bios config, etc. Now a chromebook costs $200 and a child can operate it.

So I can see things being simplified, instead of very complicated engines needing oxy sensors, thermostats, timing etc etc. A car would have a battery, motor, and sensor modules, on top of a basic chassis with modular suspension. And when your car fails it'll flag up on the computer, you take it to the garage and the robotic garage would just slot out a failed sensor module and slot in a new one.

But that wouldn't help in say building maintenance, running electric cables through a new build or anything like that. The jobs that'll stay will be the opposite to what people used to say - people used to say blue collar jobs will disappear and only artists and white collar "creatives" will be left, but it's now looking like the total opposite.