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Fritzschmied t1_itpo6cb wrote

I mean. Is there anybody that expects that autonomous vehicles replace human drivers in the next decade?

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shahooster t1_itpspkg wrote

In 2015, I thought the transition would happen starting ~2025. Pretty clearly got that one wrong.

e: 2025 expected

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onyxengine t1_itr26d7 wrote

We can do it, hybrid is just difficult to fine tune, and fully automated would be expensive while having lots of public resistance.

No one has enough access to enough roadway to really iron out the bugs, and simple devices that give the ais better information to make decisions would have to become standard accessories on vehicles and miles of highway.

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lyacdi t1_itpxuqc wrote

In 2017 i thought it would start happening around 2020. also got that one extremely wrong

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5050Clown t1_itpytew wrote

In 2018 or 2019 I spoke with someone who was worked for a company that was demoing self driving cars at a Vegas tech fair and he laughed at the idea that they would replace people in 20 years.

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Sanchez_U-SOB t1_itqxp7p wrote

Humans are unpredictable a lot and it's hard to make the machines adapt to that fact.

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MrSteakGradeA t1_itpw3t8 wrote

"My guess as to when we would think it is safe for somebody to essentially fall asleep and wake up at their destination?" he mused. "Probably towards the end of next year."

Elon Musk in 2020

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Ekvinoksij t1_itqu75w wrote

He just says whatever he thinks will pump the stock.

He predicts FSD by next year every year.

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mr9025 t1_itpyrem wrote

I would say yes. Pretty shortly before ten years. If say, IBM is able to master this new AI for deep based learning, or make their transition from electricity based chips to light based chips, for just two examples of technology revolutions we’re already on the cusp of among many others, then safer autodriving cars would be much more within grasp imo.

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Fritzschmied t1_itpzrnb wrote

Maybe in the us but here in Europe it takes at least 10 years to even make it legal for autonomous to be a thing. Here it isn’t even legal to use the full functionality of a Tesla as it is right now.

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Just_Discussion6287 t1_itsbpyd wrote

Replacement is a tricky topic because that means every vehicle would have to be equipped with the technology starting in the next few years to get to the majority by 20 years.

Meanwhile 2-3% of the fleet would get rid of almost every driving job. That's definitely 2033 territory.

There's not nearly as much value to the average person as there is to companies.

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smtsmtusername t1_itq5l6t wrote

I expect they never replace drivers to be honest. Maybe except on highways with better technologies for safety purposes. But not in cities except if the technology prioritizes the safety of pedestrians and cyclists that did not chose to use a car and the danger it represents. They shouldn’t have to pay with their lives if someone else decided to use a car.

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spreadlove5683 t1_itrn7n8 wrote

Metaculus thinks there will be significant replacement in the next decade:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11608/self-driving-taxis-available-to-metaculites/

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Fritzschmied t1_itrnxup wrote

Maybe in the us but here in Europe where I come from it’s not even allowed to use the full feature set of a Tesla as it is right now. It takes at least a decade to even make it legal possible to do autonomous driving. Sadly our governments are that slow.

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pandoras_sphere t1_itsvay7 wrote

Tesla FSD is getting pretty good, and it has two massive blind spots from the lack of forward looking repeater camera. It is also using a computer from 3.5 years ago ((introduced 2019-03)[https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/tesla_(car_company)/fsd_chip])

I think if they make new repeaters with forward looking cameras, and perhaps a new computer behind the glovebox they should be able to pull it off.

The current FSD 3 computer is backwards compatible with FSD 2 wiring (introduced 2016-10).

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Maleficent_Box5566 t1_itv9c6u wrote

At this point I wouldn't care if they added a bump to the A pillar and moved those B pillar cameras up there. The perspectives are the limiting factor now. Also the rear camera needs an automatic cleaning method.

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pandoras_sphere t1_itvjaax wrote

For the existing fleet, they only have the existing wiring to deal with. Hence, I don't see a new A-Pillar camera being an option.

The changed the front of the repeater from chrome to black. I think this hints at adding a camera someday in the future.

I'll be interested to see the camera decisions in the cyber truck.

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