Let me do my duty as Eeyore. 15 years puts us almost in 2040. Then, the old rich world will be down to about a fifth of world output (versus 40% today, 95% in 1950) and geopolitics will have changed to match this. The emerging economies will have more graduates that the old rich world has people, most of whom will be elderly. Africa will continue to have most fo the world's youth, and will be on its way to a third of world population - always given that it remains stable and doesn't descend into chaos. The sole stable response of the old rich world is automation, including the integration of its workforce into advanced systems. Many will be unable to compete under such conditions, and a form of economic apartheid will separate players in secure urban environments and dependents into peripheral trailer parks. As this "stable response" is politically difficult, such outcomes will be hard to achieve and trade barriers and protectionist blocks to the broader world will be widespread. The old rich world will be sour with denial and blame: an ecosystem of Trumps.

In general, the world of 2040 will be one of systems, both natural and sociopolitical, under intense strain. The void that lurks below when management of these faisl will eb evidenced by several horrid examples. Where management succeeds, the outcome will achieve extraordinary heights, but always permeated by anxiety about the troughs and their ability to spread their rot. Successful societies will be watchful, authoritarian, Singapore writ large.