Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

ttkciar t1_izguewe wrote

Note that Vinge described an epistemlogical singularity, beyond which reality is fundamentally unpredictable.

He used that as a justification for introducing fantastical plot elements to his writing, but his underlying reasoning was sound -- http://ciar.org/ttk/techsing/vinge.html

Given that, we would expect an encroaching singularity to cause the world to be increasingly unpredictable and harder to control, as your exertions interact with increasingly unpredictable forces working at odds to your agenda.

It takes very little reflection to confirm that, yes, the world has become a less predictable place, particularly in the last twenty years. It has become so in no small part due to technological advances.

By way of illustration, consider the following dynamic:

There is a tech company, "A", which is constantly developing better technology to sell to a customer, "B", who is using it to do something to you, "C" -- perhaps it's marketing technology for selling you bon-bons, or perhaps it's propaganda technology for advocating a political party, or perhaps it's spyware for figuring out your deepest secrets. The exact form of the technology doesn't matter for this illustration.

Every twelve months, "A" doubles the effectiveness of this technology (following the exponential trend of improving technologies in general) and six months later they sell it to "B", who starts using it on you "C" immediately, but it takes another twelve months after that for you to become aware of "A"'s technological advances through the media.

What is the visibility of that technology, from the perspectives of A, B and C? Let's map it out, with "1" representing the effectiveness of the technology when it is first available to market on January 1st of year 2000:

Date A B C
2000-01-01 1 0 0
2000-07-01 1 1 0
2001-01-01 2 1 0
2001-07-01 2 2 1
2002-01-01 4 2 1
2002-07-01 4 4 2
2003-01-01 8 4 2
2003-07-01 8 8 4
2004-01-01 16 8 4

Do you see what's happening? By the time you become aware of the kinds of technology being used against you, the people using it against you are already using technology twice as effective, and the people developing that technology might possess technology four times as effective.

That's just as a ratio. If you look at the absolute difference between the technology you're aware of and the technology being used against you, that difference is increasing exponentially.

This can be generalized to any circumstance where familiarity with technology takes a longer path through some social networks than others. Someone communicating with someone closer to the source of the technology (say, chatting about work with the developers on IRC) will become aware of it sooner than someone reading Reddit (say, r/Futurology), and someone watching news on the television will become aware of it later still.

This, despite that all three of these kinds of people might fall under the influence of that technology at the same time.

The take-away here is that the absolute difference in effectiveness between the technology you are aware of and the technology influencing your life is growing exponentially. So is the difference between the technology you are aware of and the technology someone following different information channels is aware of.

That looks exactly like a epistemological singularity to me.

42

FrogsEverywhere OP t1_izgw4yc wrote

That's a fascinating point and one can only imagine the difference between AI projects that are being released publicly and what is being worked on at DARPA or similar. What we find amazing might already be completely buried in obsolescence.

10

remmi91 t1_izh77u7 wrote

One of the most compelling illustrations I’ve seen on this. I don’t know what to think about this, but I suppose that means ‘A’ already built the technology to make up my mind for me a few years ago. Spooky.

7

YourWiseOldFriend t1_izi0uc7 wrote

>the technology being used against you

This is the only thing that matters. We have new technology, it's extremely effective, it's used against us.

/humans will be obsolete this century. [me, some years ago]

3

Fdbog t1_izjpcjb wrote

It's even more terrifying if you add in Cybernetic theory as well. Technology might actually be the Ur-effect or cause. 2001 a space odyssey's monolith might be fiction but it's quite possibly not.

1