Crypto and blockchain remind me of NoSQL. When NoSQL hit the developer sphere, you couldn't be blamed for getting the sense that NoSQL was going to replace RDBMSs. They didn't, of course. RDBMSs like MySQL, MariaDB, Oracle, and MS SQL are still far more popular, but NoSQL has still exploded in popularity.

Instead of displacing relational databases, document-oriented databases augmented developers' toolsets. That's the future I see for blockchain as well. It becomes just another tool for solving problems.

Crypto currency is the first major implementation of blockchain technology, and because we — as a society — place so much emphasis on monetary success, crypto exploded. It's quite possible that all crypto currencies are ultimately revealed as nothing more than speculative casinos. I'm not entirely predisposed to that idea, but I do acknowledge that it's possible. The 2022 crypto crash lends a lot of credibility to that viewpoint. Nothing can erase the potential utility of crypto currencies, but their practical utility has yet to be demonstrated. The longer we go without a success in that regard, the less likely it seems to become truth.

Blockchain technology, however, is very fundamental. It's a brilliant idea, and a building block that could underpin any number of solutions. The question is whether or not there are any problems which demand said solution.

Looking at blockchain through a business lens, I see only one major benefit: the distributed nature of blockchain means you can run a massive database with no direct cost. I think of this like peer-to-peer multiplayer gaming technology. While the dedicated server model is still pervasive, the P2P model enables smaller publishers to create multiplayer games without the expense of massive centralized server infrastructure. P2P is "distributed" multiplayer gaming.

So how can this distributed nature of blockchain enable business? Since blockchain is a database, the possibilities are endless. Right now, the technology has been largely pigeonholed to keeping ledgers for currency, but NFTs and smart contracts are earnest attempts at expanding the horizon. IMO, NTFs aren't a great business though, and smart contracts are more of a protocol than a business. It's likely that these sorts of protocols will layer on top of blockchain technologies to create something meaningful, but it's difficult to see what that will be today. That doesn't mean it's more or less likely; just that it's difficult to see the future.

That shouldn't come as a shock to anyone. The future is difficult to see. Even people who we consider very good at it tend to get it wrong much of the time. I do think that blockchain is too novel an innovation to whither into complete obscurity though. I'm absolutely confident that it has a role to play in the future. I just think the corruption of its utilization at the start has soured public perception of it, which may extend its incubation period a bit.