Hugely technically challenging and costly goals have been touted, not least the aim of people living and working on other worlds, possibly within ten years - but in a divided world where international good will is scarce, are they realistic?

I'm not too sure if most governments are willing to put in the resources to explore and exploit space. I suspect we'll be more willing when there are significant commercial benefits to exploiting resources for our own gain- maybe by mid century?

The following submission statement was provided by /u/filosoful:

Hugely technically challenging and costly goals have been touted, not least the aim of people living and working on other worlds, possibly within ten years - but in a divided world where international good will is scarce, are they realistic?

Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/10felqd/can_humanitys_new_giant_leap_into_space_succeed/j4w9j51/

In theory US could comfortably win this race with Nasa's budget but in practice it wont because of Congress way of spending that budget, you simply wont win that race with the SLS mindset, luckily they have SpaceX and the companies that are on the rise, like Relativity, Rocket Lab and others, which will certainly carry the US over their shoulders to the end goal which is Moon and Mars colonization, maybe asteroid and planet mining as well

Let's do it in 200 years, when we've beaten climate change and know how to keep a planet alive.

Here’s something to consider:

China’s population is imploding. That will damage their domestic supply chains, which will further adversely affect their population. All of this will damage their currency which will call into doubt, their credit worthiness, which will likely damage international supply chains.

They will probably either be in a civil war (because Xi jealousy eliminated all viable successors) or, if Xi is still in power, they will probably be executing a government plan that eliminates half a billion Chinese citizens, so that the economy isn’t under so much stress.

Of course all if this will be quietly ignored as the world focuses on the chinese vs US space race, which the Chinese government will gladly prioritize over feeding its citizens because it’s politically cheaper (in their view) to distract from famine, than to actually feed them.

But hey - go ahead and focus on the headline if that makes you feel better.

>They will probably either be in a civil war (because Xi jealousy eliminated all viable successors) or, if Xi is still in power, they will probably be executing a government plan that eliminates half a billion Chinese citizens, so that the economy isn’t under so much stress.

I think predictions of a civil war are a little extreme. A depression and maybe something similar to what happened to Japan with the lost decade might happen, but there's nothing I've seen that would indicate a civil war is near.

Yeah you’re right. Civil war is too resource intensive. I might more accurately characterize it as a struggle for power among those near the top.

Love the user name btw

I would like to thank the Chinese for inspiring the US to go back to space. Even if it’s just because of FOMO.

Oh I think we know how to keep a planet alive. It's excessive greed and ignorance we cannot seem to snuff out.

Hmm 10 billion people don't have to be very greedy to cause the 6th mass extinction.

With wise resource allocation and enhanced application of even our current technology it could be done. Pessimism is a threat I didn't list but should have I suppose.

Denial is the bigger threat though.

With private industry the US has already effectively won the race. Add in the fact that private industry can work with other countries (except China) and there was never any contest.

There are multiple insurmountable problems for China but none will lead to civil war. China's populace has been designed to be subservient. Anyone with the will to fight was either killed or exiled. Over the next few decades we'll see China implode as the rest of the world moves to other countries for manufacturing. This will force the communist party to close the country off again.