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[deleted] t1_j8207p8 wrote

For the most part it will be a slow enough process to modernize each industry that you won't have this all at once kind of scenario. It will be more like a steady flow of change, not so much multiple industries facing significant job losses at the same time. At least not until you have general purpose labor robots.

The way automation will change the economy will be much bigger than just 2008. The 2008 crash really only lasted like a year and got better steadily. It was a lot of fear mongering and consumer getting scared for no reason more than a legit economic problem.

That does tell me though, consumer confidence is the single most important metric in economics and I'd say every other metric together barely even compares in importance.

Long term the value of money and all assets produced with labor have to go down to re-adjust to the new much lower labor rates of robots. At some point this means your house and other assets have to decrease in value because they are significantly easier to re-build new than when you bought them.

Money is mostly a metric that measures labor. It's not real value, it's a measure of the value of labor... so without economic intervention even the value of money itself should decline.

I think this EVENTUALLY leads to the scenario where money just doesn't hold as much importance in society because everything is so much cheaper it just doesn't matter as much. What matters is how good your robots are and how many you have as a nation and eventually how available they are the general public. I suspect an open source robotic labor industry will spring up eventually and even robots will make robots, meaning even the robots won't be worth much in normal terms of value.

Really very little stays worth much beside land, because that's one of the few things you can't just have robots build more.

The transition to get that point where unemployment might keep building up faster than new jobs get invented will be the worst part. After that the costs of things will be declining and make the whole lack of jobs things a lot easier to deal with.

Beyond that the hardest thing here is just humans figure out what to do with all their spare time since working 8 hours a day is mostly a waste of time at that point.

We will invent SO MANY dumb jobs it will be funny, but even with that I think a lot of people will have to work much fewer hours per week if they work at all and most assets will lose so much value that keeping the standard of living up will be easier than it seems, even without everyone needing jobs.

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d3d_m8 t1_j84howk wrote

My only contrarian point would be that money isn't a metric that measures labor - money is the translation of perceived value which can pretty much mean anything.

I see your point that with it potentially being extremely cheap to build housing that costs might come down but that's extremely dependent on so many other variables.

Either way I'm excited for the future, there are so many good things that can come out of this that it's not even funny. (I understand that the same goes for bad, but focusing on one or the other is going to affect your mindset in that specific way)

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thebazzle t1_j82z33c wrote

When do you foresee this happening? In what kind of time span?

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