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Unique_Enthusiasm_ t1_iywfdkr wrote

If I have the monthly electricity consumption data for the last 18 months and I want to predict the electricity consumption for the next month, which ML model should I use?

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ForceBru t1_iyxs8wm wrote

You should probably start with basic time-series models like ARIMA, its seasonal version (seasonality should be particularly important for electricity forecasting) and maybe exponential smoothing.

When looking for research about time-series forecasting, I somewhat often stumble upon these basic methods perform well for electricity forecasting. I can't cite any particular papers since electricity forecasting is not my area of research, but I do feel like these methods are often discussed in the context of electricity forecasting specifically. I'm not sure whether this is a general trend though.

Anyway, in time-series analysis, it's often beneficial to try the traditional models first and only then reach for machine learning. Looks like ARIMA-like models perform fairly well in many cases, so there may be no need for any complicated ML.

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