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2Punx2Furious t1_j3nzumw wrote

Reply to comment by TrueBirch in [P] I built Adrenaline, a debugger that fixes errors and explains them with GPT-3 by jsonathan

> We're a long way from a robotic farmhand being able to perform those skills, certainly not for a price comparable to a farm laborer.

If we get AGI, we automatically get that as well, by definition. Those you listed are all currently hard problems, yes, but an AGI would be able to do them, no problem.

The issue is, will AGI ever be achieved, and if yes, when?

I think the answer to the first one is simple, the second one not as much.

The answer (in very short) is: Most likely yes, unless we go extinct first. Because we know that general intelligence is possible, so I see no reason why it shouldn't be possible to replicate artificially, and even improve it, and several, very wealthy companies are actively working on it, and the incentive to achieve it is huge.

As for the when, it's impossible to know until it happens, and even then, some people will argue about it for a while. I have my predictions, but there are lots of disagreeing opinions.

I don't know how someone even remotely interested in the field could think it will never happen for sure.

As for my prediction/opinion, I actually give it a decent chance of it happening in the next 10-20 years, with probability increasing every year until the 2040s. I would be very surprised if it doesn't happen by then, but of course, there is no way to tell.

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TrueBirch t1_j4jd8af wrote

A true AGI has way too many edge cases to be possible in the timeframe you describe. It's also not necessary to create AGI in order to make a lot of money from AI. You can find the specific jobs that you want to replace and create a task-specific AI to do it.

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2Punx2Furious t1_j4kyyhq wrote

True that you don't need AGI to disrupt everything. But I don't think the edge cases matter, it's not like it will be coded manually.

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TrueBirch t1_j4lb7fg wrote

>I don't think the edge cases matter

Being able to handle those weird edge cases is what distinguishes AGI from the kinds of AI that companies are currently developing...

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2Punx2Furious t1_j4lbgjj wrote

Yes, I'm saying the fact that there are edge cases doesn't matter, because it's not us who have to address them. As we get closer and closer to AGI, it will get better at handling them, we won't have to find them, and code solutions for them. I think it will be an emergent quality of AGI.

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