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Screye t1_j6tu8mc wrote

> in ten years?

10 years ago was 2012. Deep Learning didn't even exist as field back then.

Tempting as it might be, I'd recommend caution in predicting the future of a field that went from non-existence to near-dominance within its profession in the last 10 years.

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gdahl t1_j6uc1bh wrote

Deep learning existed as a field in 2012. The speech recognition community had already adopted deep learning by that point. The Brain team at Google already existed. Microsoft, IBM, and Google were all using deep learning. As an academic subfield, researchers started to coalesce around "deep learning" as a brand in 2006, but it certainly was very niche at that point.

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[deleted] t1_j6uj4vr wrote

[deleted]

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gdahl t1_j6upct4 wrote

I would say the turning point was when we published the first successful large vocabulary results with deep acoustic models in April 2011, based on work conducted over the summer of 2010. When we published the paper you mention, it was to recognize that these techniques were the new standard in top speech recognition groups.

Regardless, there were deep learning roles in tech companies in 2012, just not very many of them compared to today.

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PassingTumbleweed OP t1_j6tz0wq wrote

I agree everyone should take predictions with a huge grain of salt (obviously some clever person might find a way to make Open-ChatGPT on mobile... We can only hope), however this does seem like a conversation worth having, since LLMs appear to have a massive impact across many areas at once. Already I find a lot of the insights here interesting!

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