IamSauerKraut t1_itbx53g wrote on October 22, 2022 at 1:46 PM

Reply to comment by tabshiftescape in You know it's bad when the "everything is rigged" guy agrees that the polls aren't rigged by ActivatedFamiliar

Nate Silver has not been relevant, or playing within the ballpark, since at least 2008.

tabshiftescape t1_itbxuvh wrote on October 22, 2022 at 1:52 PM

Please provide a justifiably better source of aggregated responses from likely voters and I’ll update my original comment.

IamSauerKraut t1_itbzxa7 wrote on October 22, 2022 at 2:09 PM

I shall do no such thing. When it comes to Nate Silver, buyer beware.

tabshiftescape t1_itc0fw6 wrote on October 22, 2022 at 2:13 PM

In most areas of my life, I try to take the approach of “unless you know a better way.” Critical accusations and suggestions of caution have a place, but should be stated with evidence.

We have as much reason to treat your cautioning with caution as we do the link I originally posted.

IamSauerKraut t1_itc2b7f wrote on October 22, 2022 at 2:27 PM

Nate Silver has been so wrong so often for so long that I do not consider him a credible predictor of future events. That he is an aggregator or claims to use "math" is meaningless. Indeed, in the Perry-Daniels race for Congress, he has Daniels up by 3%. Which makes "unless you know a better way" equally meaningless in this context.