It can also be people reading the winds. The argument for crediting Trump with the stock market is that it’s based on expectations. Similarly, maybe knowing there’s a new boss in charge caused some illegal forest clearing to stop. Loggers might have been more confident under Bolsonaro because they thought they’d be less likely to be prosecuted. It’s all pretty nebulous. There are so many factors at play at any given time it’s really hard to know how import any one thing is.