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cavscout43 t1_jbg0wk1 wrote

Japan Takes Over the World is very much an 80s/90s trope, that was rooted in perceived reality. From action comedies like Back to the Future Part II where future Marty's boss is Japanese, to Die Hard in Nakatomi Plaza, to large swathes of Bladerunner looking like a Japanese/American hybrid future....the future was expected to be Japan.

Few saw the systemic economic problems looming, the demographic time bomb ticking down, the growing asset bubble, and so on. Japan in the early 90s had a significantly higher GDP per capita than the US.

In '91 geopolitical analyst George Friedman predicted there'd be a shooting war by a weak and threatened US trying to contain an all powerful Japan. Now, Japan is #28 or so in GDP per capita, down below Kuwait and Taiwan. Their population dropped by over half a million last year.

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nikhoxz t1_jbg6e8h wrote

>They also considered that Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution was only a "legal fiction" and would not prevent Japanese rearmament or aggression

Well, at least he got this right, but Japan in the 80's was still a military powerhouse, they had the 5th largest navy in the world, they still have the 5th largest today but in the 80's they were more defense focused, now they have a lot more attack capabilities and will have even more in the next years with their huge Tomahawk cruise missiles adquisitions, the new ASEV ships and the two reconverted Izumo class into aircraft carriers.

But this happened today with a "weak" economy so Japan's Self Defense Forces will never be as powerful as US Armed Forces... now is China the one that took Japan's place in this hypothetiical future.

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Josquius t1_jbipam5 wrote

Its interesting that though China is on a similar trajectory and hasn't quite reached the bursting bubble point, the media has very much moved on from the "The future is Chinese!" trope.

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cavscout43 t1_jbjfhon wrote

China's issue is more complex:

  1. They're aging much faster than they're growing wealthy as a country
  2. Their wealth inequality is vast. Japan is still in the top 15 for median household wealth (the US is 20 something by comparison)
  3. A lot of the key metrics from China are opaque, smoothed, and questionable. Unemployment rates, for example are always 4-5% per government reports. Regardless of macroeconomic factors like recessions or economic booms. Those have multiple times been called out since they don't include rural or migrant workers, and some reports have suggested double-digit unemployment rates are common year to year.
  4. China is still in the Middle Income Trap. The question is if enough of the wealthy urban coastal cities can generate enough to balance out the much more impoverished rural interior as a whole, and if they're willing to do so.
  5. In contemporary history, the only countries to truly achieve high income status have done so with (relatively) liberal democracies, representative governments, and promoting progressive societal policies of various flavors. China is trying to break ground as a truly authoritarian police state wielding state capitalism strategically, and leveraging police/surveillance state technology to the fullest. To what outcomes very much remains to be seen. If they're successful, we may see far more iron-fisted style governments supported by, and emulating them. If they fail, it may be evidence that you can't turn a highly controlled society into a wealthy one, such as Singapore, at any real scale.
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