Roulette simulation: 10'000 players each betting 5'000 times (74% chance of having a negative return ) [OC]nautilus_red OP t1_iry2fjj wrote
Reply to comment by Nitz93 in Roulette simulation: 10'000 players each betting 5'000 times (74% chance of having a negative return ) [OC] by nautilus_red
First of all thanks for acknowledging the simulation!
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>My math friend says it doesn't matter but it's so unintuitive to me.
I try to give you an intuitive answer for this one. if I would ask you which of the following two options has a higher probability to roll a six:
(a) Roll ten dices at the same time.
(b) Roll one dice ten times.
It would be very obvious (I hope) that (a) and (b) are exactly the same because in the end you rolled ten dice and each outcome is independent of each other no matter if rolled all at once ore one by one. Now applied to our roulette scenario (a) would be betting multiple numbers on the table and (b) would be betting only one number at the time. So, it really doesn't matter how you approach that.
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>What I wanna see is how to maximize the chance for not playing like an idiot.
Well if you play to win than there is no hope because you cannot win as I am quite sure you already know. What we could do is minimize our expected loss by finding the least worst strategy (we can also call it the best but you are still not winning). I am no guru when it comes to roulette but you could easily simulate that e.g. if you want to know whats your expected chance of walking away by betting on red all the time over X amount of bets.
=> If you are interested in gambling strategies read about Martingale strategy which is quite interesting but spoiler: it doesn't work either. Here is an example: Hyperlink
If you cannot simulate it yourself I might be able to do so but you find my Python code in another comment I replied to.
Colmarr t1_irz1ay6 wrote
>Now applied to our roulette scenario (a) would be betting multiple numbers on the table and (b) would be betting only one number at the time. So, it really doesn't matter how you approach that.
This isn't a sound analogy.
10 dice can (and probably will) return 6 different results).
One spin of the roulette wheel cannot return 6 different results.
You're probably right that betting multiple numbers doesn't change the odds (I haven't checked), but it's not for the reason you've expressed here.
Edit: I think I see what you mean. You are suggesting that placing a bet is like rolling a dice (not that spinning the wheel is like rolling a dice). In that context yes the analogy works.
Nitz93 t1_irzpu8d wrote
Think of a 37 Sided dice.
Nitz93 t1_irznbn8 wrote
Mathematical chance vs real life
1/2 and 1/4 + 1/4 would be the same chance, as are 10 dice vs 10 rolls of 1 dice. But I am not here for math, it's about reality.
You know the guys in your simulation all had the same odds. I wanna improve the overall odds, a method where more people would win.
And if you consider real life end points;
- like if you play til you win. This could happen on roll 11 of the singular dice, but for the 10 rolls it must be the 20. So the payout is lowered by 9 bets.
If you already won 17k you may decide to keep on playing til you win or lose 2k.
Or you start with 7k, stop playing once you hit 2k.
These situations are real, you know the overall chance to win at 50 spins is the same but you won't play exactly 50 spins.
In the simulation/real life there must be some super lucky gamblers, those win more often by pure chance and that should happen slightly more often in a group of people playing only 1 number vs people playing 2/3/../17 numbers at once.
*and of course much more often in groups playing better odds than only numbers.
Yeah one is always an idiot when playing but losing 5 bucks on a roulette table is fun. 30-100 bucks is fair price for a fun evening. I just want the most bang for my bucks.
IkeRoberts t1_is0efjt wrote
>30-100 bucks is fair price for a fun evening. I just want the most bang for my bucks.
Calculating a value-maximizing betting strategy for that goal would be interesting. Betting $1 every other spin would stretch the funds but not the fun.
Nitz93 t1_is0g3fu wrote
Should be 1 bet per game, everything but a betting directly on a number.
Splitting a number or 4 is OK, going for red or so too.
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