Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

eric5014 t1_ixc8nj2 wrote

Reply to comment by sinfulducking in A plot of the goals scored per game in the 2022 MLS season. [OC] by sinfulducking

Instead of the curve, red horizontal lines in each column for the Poisson value for each number. That would be more accurate and indicate how close the real values are to it.

The Poisson distribution is exactly what we'd expect if goals were random occurrences and no extra time. So no surprise but a good example for anyone explaining Poisson.

4

rallenpx t1_ixc9sl9 wrote

Am I reading this right in thinking there's (slightly) more 3 goal games than we would expect?

1

eric5014 t1_ixcaag8 wrote

Yes. 3 would be 22.4%.

5.2%, 15.3%, 22.7%, 22.4%, 16.6%, 9.8%, 4.5% for 0 to 6.

1