[OC] World Cup 2022 : Evolution of the probabilities of winning the world cup according to the bookmakers
Submitted by TheKitof t3_zojrw2 in dataisbeautiful
How does it make sense that Croatia's chances were greater before the game with Japan than before the next game with Brasil?
They drew that game 0-0 against Belgium with a lot of luck and didn’t show much quality
Yeah but belgium is on paper really good, i think they were ranked top 5 before the wc, so a draw against them should be good no?
Rankings don’t mean anything.
Belgium were not playing good and just lost 2-0 to Morocco.
Fifa rankings literally mean nothing. They're calculated in a bizzare way.
Brazil won and was known as next opponent. Sure, they were strong favorites against South Korea anyway, but Croatia's chance to win overall would have relied on pretty unlikely outcomes anyway and an upset victory of South Korea would have helped a lot (Croatia beating Brazil was the other unlikely option, of course). Argentina and the Netherlands won their games, too, so the semifinal was guaranteed to have a strong opponent as well. Add a weak performance against Japan to the mix.
Bookmakers don't care about strength of teams, but about money bet on each side. If you see 5:1 odds for team A against team B, chances are team B has 5x more money bet on it already. Apparently Croatia had less bets as a percentage of all remaining teams after the game with Japan.
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