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TheCloudBoy t1_j8o1kpb wrote

Hi, meteorologist here. The short answer is likely no

The vinyl chloride burn has occurred under a number of days with a very stout subsidence inversion in play nearby. This means the atmosphere is not well mixed at night, but features a mixed layer as high as 2 km (~6600 ft) during the day with a layer average wind direction from the WNW. The picture above shows the burn plume trapped underneath very stable mid-level air with little horizontal movement, a clear sign of a robust subsidence inversion. The reports of multiple livestock & fish perishing over a shorter radius also confirms the presence of a subsidence inversion preventing these toxins from fanning out deeper into the atmosphere.

I've run an ensemble forward trajectory analysis (https://imgur.com/gallery/0rFlz1Z) starting at the location & approximate time of the fire, which follows the movement of air parcels up 1 km above ground (~3300 ft), a mean of each day's mixed layer during this burn. For you math/science nerds, this is the Lagranagian view of the parcel/fluid through time.

Notice that the mean mixed-layer wind direction (WNW) does carry whatever gas & aerosols are being emitted from this fire into the Carolinas before loitering over the western Atlantic. Given vinyl chloride gas is heavier than the surrounding air, it's likely remained in the lowest 1 km close to the incident location, signaling this is probably not a far-reaching event.

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granitestate6 OP t1_j8o2sil wrote

Wow!! Thanks so much! (Love that nerdy stuff!)

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LassieMcToodles t1_j8s2le4 wrote

Thanks OP for asking this question, and u/TheCloudBoy for answering it.

It really ticks me off that we have to turn to each other to find answers that should have been readily and quickly given to us by those at the top. "Where is it headed/where and when did it go?" are basic questions that countless numbers of us have been wondering for days, but heaven forbid those in charge come out and thoroughly address and answer them.

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8s5wv1 wrote

I've had similar issues with the dissemination of critical information about this controlled burn from the beginning, the town hall in East Palestine last night was revealing and shows folks there are even more frustrated about this.

Let's focus on the HYSPLIT modeling I've shown and another pair of images released by NOAA ARL (Air Resources Laboratory) referenced in another post below. The moment this burn was ignited, ARL was supporting the local NWS forecast office and other government agencies by running a high-resolution HYSPLIT WRF nest over that burn. Essentially, as new info about the burn and weather analysis data came in, they were running new plume dispersion forecasts, likely at least 4 times a day but probably once an hour. None of these frequently updated data were readily visible to the public to my knowledge, which is totally unacceptable.

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LassieMcToodles t1_j8s7ntq wrote

>which is totally unacceptable

Indeed.

(And now, years later, I'm wondering where all of the Lac-Megantic train wreck cloud blew, as HELLO! we were directly south of that one.)

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8sb3sa wrote

The HYSPLIT modeling ARL offers allows you to run archived parcel trajectories and dispersion, I'm half-tempted to run one to see where all that smoke ended up.

I'll keep this next statement as apolitical as possible: multiple facets leading up to and during the response to this disaster should show all of us how corrupt entire agencies and the broader U.S. government have become, regardless of which party has control.

Look at how this train wasn't classified as carrying very hazardous materials, the arresting of local journalists covering the event, the complete silence by multiple federal agencies for nearly a week (eerily similar to the Soviet Union during Chernobyl), a failure to share critical information in a timely manner, covering for a private company clearly in the wrong (eerily similar to Japan covering TEPCO during Fukushima-Daiichi), I can keep going.

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thenagain11 t1_j910c0r wrote

CT had similar issues: https://www.wfsb.com/2023/02/17/questions-raised-over-mysterious-soot-like-residue-that-accumulated-vehicles/

Their news is saying it's most likely dust/dirt from dust storms in Texas and Oklahoma. Apparently, these types of storms push a lot of junk high into the atmosphere, and it takes a while to float back down- which could explain why it got all the way to New england maybe?

What do you think?

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TheCloudBoy t1_j91nkel wrote

I very much agree with CT DEEP's assessment that what we saw in CT is from other systems in the Southern Plains. Those particles lofted into the atmosphere are (depending on the exact size) very ideal as cloud condensation nuclei, which are particles that water vapor condenses to and form larger water droplets. These droplets then fall to the ground in larger storms, which we've seen a few times now. Given we've had a few predominant low-level SW flow regimes prior to this report, I'm even more convinced it's dust from the Plains.

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granitestate6 OP t1_j8sw008 wrote

Ohio is telling people at ground zero to return home, it's all good, yes? What can those residents do?

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granitestate6 OP t1_j8o5468 wrote

User name checks out.

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8o5orm wrote

There are a few cloud nerds living in the Granite State

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Pappa_Crim t1_j8pn0pj wrote

I think a few of them were freezing their ass off on top of the rock pile

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Impriel t1_j8oi8xg wrote

This is the type of immediate and thorough response scientists give in a movie nice work

Kshhht

Mission control we have a situation. Call in the cloud boy

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srb5331 t1_j8o2exc wrote

Thank you for this analysis, very thorough and educational!

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Abosco129 t1_j8of3ww wrote

Hey there! Love this trajectory that you posted - super informational.

With the toxins projected to dump into the ocean persay - what’s next? Acid rain? Carbonic acid plus chloride?

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8ohsq9 wrote

Based on the fact sheet I dug up about this gas from the EPA, my suspicion is we're fine here given how far away we are, the half life of the gas is fairly short both in water and soil: https://semspub.epa.gov/work/05/437069.pdf

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capistor t1_j8pbdg3 wrote

Just make sure you don’t ever smell it the dangerous threshold is only 3 ppm.

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ICodeIGuess t1_j8p05aa wrote

Will there be any health-related side effects for the people living in or near this area? The first thought that came to mind was cancer, but I don't know anything about anything.

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tak18 t1_j8p35gb wrote

Can you help explain this report from NOAA? https://www.reddit.com/gallery/112v93n

https://www.arl.noaa.gov/arl-weekly-2-3-23/

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8p4wce wrote

Good question: this is the first I've seen of ARL running particle cross section analysis right at the start of the controlled fire before the mean wind shifted. So at the initial burst, they're modeling (using I suspect a different model than the one I used to calculate the forward trajectory) the most likely dispersion integrating estimated particle release per hour. That's also starting a full 12 hours earlier than mine, right as the trough is moving through, more on that below.

What this shows is particles initially contained in the lowest 3,000 ft of the atmosphere that advect NE, then N as they're mixed higher into the atmosphere (shades of blue). This likely is along the first upper-level trough to pivot through here last week, though these particles being an issue here seems almost non-existent given what we know about the lifespan of vinyl chloride gas & how high up these particles were mixed. Then as the winds became more predominately WNW (second image), the plume orients ESE, with concentrations contained in a smaller area than I think some feared would be otherwise.

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8p55gr wrote

One critical question I still have is how these particles may bond to both ice crystals, water droplets, and supercooled droplets deeper in the atmosphere. Are they small enough to act as cloud condensation nuclei? Did they bond to the aforementioned hydrometers and precipitate out wherever the plume density was highest and rain/snow occurred?

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tak18 t1_j8pa095 wrote

Thank you for your response. Good to know it's likely a non-issue for us.

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DigTreasure t1_j8rqynh wrote

This is the map I saw and I believe it over some reddit cloud guru

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tak18 t1_j8s8a3t wrote

I do agree but it's good to get different viewpoints. Both sources are using different modeling, similar to hurricane tracking or other weather events.

What is most interesting now is that NOAA figure has been removed from the article. I'm curious as to why. And I have not seen any other articles that don't focus on anything but the vicinity of the burn site. Really strange how little is being covered on this, but I suppose I'm not surprised.

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DigTreasure t1_j8s9x9e wrote

Because the rail and chemicals are owned by vanguard which has enormous share stakes in media outlets.

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Zealousideal-Face946 t1_j8x4qf3 wrote

All the corruption rearing its ugly head. Where's all the ground reporters live at the scene? Scared and far away but it's ok to live there and drink the water.

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ranaparvus t1_j8ozqf7 wrote

It’s answers like yours that make Reddit great. Thanks so much!

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Nicbudd t1_j8pnxdj wrote

Glad to meet more New Hampshirites interested in meteorology!

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anotherposter76 t1_j8yf579 wrote

Hey any update on this? I saw other projections which have the cloud coming right over update NY, Canada, and over here!

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Katasse t1_j8ytur9 wrote

NOAA plume map shows differently. couldnt paste it here.

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DocBootz t1_j8p2ff0 wrote

How many times have you experienced something like this?

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DiBello44 t1_j8puj4m wrote

So impressive…you sir / madam are a good and knowledgeable person. Thank you.

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orblivion t1_j8st9o4 wrote

It can't just stay there forever, can it? It would either dilute into the atmosphere or fall on the ground or something. Where's the bulk of it going? (Perhaps you answered and I didn't understand it).

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cjp_archaeology t1_j8v5ac4 wrote

What are your thoughts on those in the path, as it cuts through Northern VA and MD before spitting out into the Atlantic?

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1234Turtle t1_j911g1p wrote

What about the other chemicals that were released?

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Nervous_Wait_9545 t1_j8ocl0l wrote

Hopping in to call out that whether or not this guy is a real weatherman, listening to advice like this on social media is what separates the dumb people from the smart people.

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8ofc1l wrote

I just compacted concepts of atmospheric dispersion, chemistry & thermodynamics through the application of forward parcel trajectories into a single reply. I sure hope that folks here recognize my assessment isn't idiotic 🤔. I'd literally show my degree if it didn't give away who I actually am, smh

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greentintedlenses t1_j8og7zw wrote

Honestly this is all great. I'm glad you shared cause I was wondering this very thing.

But now I just want to know if I'm talking to Al Kaprielian here. That'd be real cool.

Please make my day

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8ogrsj wrote

I can confirm I am not Al Kaprielian

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Alternative_Nail1632 t1_j8orv8n wrote

That weather boy from BFHS ?

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8pdf1d wrote

Nope, the only clue I'll give is I hail from Connecticut!

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ifollowmyownrules t1_j8pf48n wrote

Ha! Did you work at WFSB a few years ago?

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8plqes wrote

You know your CT TV stations haha! Nope, but that was the station I grew up watching!

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wickedsmaaaht t1_j8rj9i3 wrote

he didn't start his response with "GOOD eeeeeeevening." I'd bet Al uses voice-to-text so all his responses probably start with that haha

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Nervous_Wait_9545 t1_j8ofuvd wrote

Not saying what you posted isn't true. I'm saying posts like this that sound like they're true is a perfect and effective vector for misinformation.

In other words: if you want advice on which microwave to buy, sure listen to social media. If it involves something important like your health, you are a fucking idiot for listening to social media

It's good for people to not have a habit of going to social media and listening to random yahoos for important things.

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BarbarossaTheGreat t1_j8ofdzr wrote

Being able to discern whose making shit up and whose the real deal is what separates the fools from the intelligent.

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Piwo1313 t1_j8oke2x wrote

And when formerly trusted sources are found complicit in ‘misinformation’ sharing and previously untrusted sources now being heralded as legitimate information sources, you can see where information-literacy skills are important.

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8ol0nq wrote

One of my hottest takes is that the slew of "fact checkers" we saw emerge around/after 2020 remain one of the largest, exploitative scams ever committed on the American public.

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ThunderySleep t1_j8omv65 wrote

No, no, no. Smart people only listen to people if they're wearing a suit and on television.

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Nervous_Wait_9545 t1_j8ofnh9 wrote

Bro in my youth I used to troll online all the time pretending to be various experts, and people would buy it hook, line and sinker.

So I'm speaking from experience here, as a former little shit who used to be all rascally on the internet.

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TheCloudBoy t1_j8ogc4c wrote

Fair haha, though I can assure everyone I hold a degree in atmospheric sciences and am employed as a meteorologist. I didn't suffer through multiple years of calculus for nothing. People can take two seconds to inspect weather balloon launches & other factoids about vinyl chloride gas to easily verify everything I've written as accurate, I don't know how much easier to make it.

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BarbarossaTheGreat t1_j8ogsnq wrote

I believe it, that’s funny as hell. Still though, a discerning eye can usually but not always be able to tell the difference.

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beyond_hatred t1_j8qv2ak wrote

Real expertise can be recognized as such. The problems come when we start thinking, for example, that Diamond and Silk's opinions are just as good as those expressed by the Director of NIAID.

Social media gives everyone an equal voice, but it's up to the reader to decide who is worth listening to. As our education system falters, we become less and less capable of making the correct call.

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