Like you mentioned, the NRSC officially stopped funding Bolduc's campaign, and now this week, a major SuperPAC tied to Mitch McConnell (Senate Leadership Fund) is backing out. That should tell you all you need to know about Bolduc's chances.

There's a lot of talk online that he's doing great, but that always happens when people are in a bubble. It's not crazy to not trust polls (and there haven't been a lot of them in NH), but all you have to do here is follow the money.