Submitted by tehproxy t3_ydyrqg in newhampshire
Comments
kearsargeII t1_itvguba wrote
Winter rewind in with a brand new account to argue that candidates not spending money somehow leads to increased margins. Quick check of 538 suggests the exact opposite of your cherry-picked pills, with the average between Hassan and Bolduc increasing over the last month from Hassan +3.7 to Hassan + 5.5
[deleted] t1_itvjpuu wrote
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kearsargeII t1_itvlu7j wrote
538 is not a poll. It is an amalgamation of dozens of polls. You chose individual polls that validate your views, I chose a site that averages polls.
For that matter, 538 also rates pollsters. That 48-47 poll is notable in that it comes from a pollster that is very consistently R +1-+3. While not absolute garbage, with a B grade, it is fairly obvious that they are not properly accounting for demographics when making the polls, and are likely not fully accounting for how people answering landlines and doing polls usually lean older. The Emerson college poll is likely fairly accurate given its excellent rating and high accuracy, but the Fabrizio poll is far less likely, given that they have a C grade and very few election polls to their name. They would also have a vested interest in drumming up support for Bolduc.
[deleted] t1_itvp7hg wrote
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FreezingRobot t1_itwq0zp wrote
Kuster's seat is as safe as Sununu's.
Also he's one of those "no abortions ever" types who doesn't pay attention to what people are actually saying on the issue, so they probably assume he's not serious.
HowardNelsonJr t1_itx4gyz wrote
Fact check: false
HowardNelsonJr t1_itx4jzp wrote
Simple answer that he will tell you himself. No money.
woolsocksandsandals t1_itzc9yd wrote
Did winter rewind get banned or something?
RickyDaytonaJr t1_ituube4 wrote
Because everybody recognizes that he’s going to lose by more than 10 points and no National GOP or PAC money is flowing into his campaign to pay for ads.