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hdhcnsnd t1_iwuofpi wrote

Always good to development, but I gotta admit this area is still pretty rough. I’m not sure who these luxury residences would be targeting and who would want to stay at a hotel here.

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Kenz0Cree t1_iwuovo3 wrote

The thought is that philly is gonna go through a resurgence and gentifry like NYC and boston has over the last 20 years. Guess we have to wait and see if it actually happens.

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LFKhael t1_iwuqood wrote

I buy it. Philly is still pretty cheap for an east coast city. Money goes a lot further here, and people from other low income cities or suburbs can afford to get off the ground.

People talk about how bad SEPTA is, but SEPTA makes it possible to participate in the economy without owning a car. That's a huge modifier given how much money a car sucks up and the random fluctuations in gas prices.

I'm overly optimistic, but I think the El and BSL make things inevitable.

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hdhcnsnd t1_iwv03m5 wrote

I agree that the El and BSL will continue to drive development.

I gotta admit though, the disjunction of development in Philly is weird. For example, there are still parking lots and other underuses of land on broad between vine and girard. Even downtown in general.

I assumed infill would precede expansion.

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donttouchthirdrail t1_iwv2uab wrote

I assume most of the thought process behind the parking lots is

  1. I have a successful business, why would I change anything
  2. I'll be able to sell it for more in 5 years

They'll get bought eventually. Hopefully city council raises the parking tax.

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LFKhael t1_iwv2dl3 wrote

I never expect real estate to make any sense. I also assume the old parking lots are money printers, like the one at 13th and Locust.

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Dryheavemorning t1_iwviykt wrote

After paying $37 to park in the surface lot by Walnut Street Theater for an hour and a half recently I believe that.

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RoughRhinos t1_iwvz9vk wrote

Oof why not take transit in?

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Dryheavemorning t1_iww45e9 wrote

Had to get to work out in the burbs asap after a Drs appointment and the regional rail schedule sucks now.

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RoughRhinos t1_iwwcmc0 wrote

Dang yeah RR scheduling is a travesty. I get annoyed when I visit my fam in jersey and have to wait 10 minutes for a Patco train. Never even check the schedules unless it's past 9pm or a weekend.

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DayJob93 t1_iwuqj8r wrote

Meh..it has been happening along with national urbanization trends in the cities you mentioned and others over the past decade. However, this is a new level of scope/ambition for an investment in a Philly project that is not based on a area that is trending towards gentrification but planting a flag and hoping similar developments will flow downstream. It’s a bold strategy cotton…

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wolfvonbeowulf t1_iwuxkoi wrote

If you look at Shift Capital's other projects, you'll see that planting flags is their M.O. Until recently, they have been basically the sole source of outside investment in the Harrowgate neighborhood in the last 10 years. Things seem to be slowly turning but it will still be a long while before Harrowgate is even seen as up and coming.

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hdhcnsnd t1_iwv0vx3 wrote

I hope that happens, but tbh Boston and NYC are miles ahead in terms of their tech/business/professional economy which I think drove their resurgence.

It’s nice to see small wins in Philly like the biotech industry growing and big tech names setting up small offices, but i don’t see Philly catching up in its current trajectory.

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Raecino t1_iww1pjx wrote

Yeah they’ve been saying that since 20 years ago

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TheBSQ t1_iwwbb5x wrote

Kinda gets at the fundamental question of whether it’s a drop in violence that opens the gates of gentrification, or if the money comes first, and that increase in wealth causes the violence to drop (either by enriching and/or displacing the original more crime-prone residents).

If it’s the drop in violence that comes first, then yeah…still a little rough to draw in folks. But if it’s there latter, then the drop in violence will come after.

One story you hear is that after we hit peak crime in 1990 and crime started consistently dropping, people became more comfortable returning to urban environments, and this happened to roughly coincide with when millennials, the largest generation ever, were hitting adulthood (and desperate to escape the boring suburbs of there youth).

So, falling crime + huge generation of young people desiring city life -> urban renewal.

But now, millennials are (belatedly) hitting family formation years, which traditionally means move to the burbs [see note]. And with increasing crime and Gen Z being smaller in size, I’m not positive the right conditions are there for that to happen again.

And I think between richer millennials leaving and poorer Gen Z coming in, and crime going up, whether you believe money chases out violence or a drop in violence welcomes in money, conditions don’t seem ideal wide either.

[note] the urbanism of millennials tends to mean they favor the denser “streetcar suburbs” that still have walkability and city rail access, while also allowing for the “bigger house with a yard and better schools and less crime” that drive families out of the city.

So my personal guess is the current/next wave of renewal will continue to be millennial driven, but be in places like Collingwood, Ardmore, and the other walkable urban-adjacent suburbs….but I do think many are trying to raise families in the city. (Personally, in my friend group, the city leavers are outnumbering the stayers.)

I’m kind of on the fence about whether America’s urban renewalism has already peaked, and we’re now on the decline, or whether it’ll rebound after we get past the current hurdles of high rates, inflation, energy issues, and the lingering effects of the pandemic.

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hdhcnsnd t1_iwwrdrj wrote

Interesting points!

I sure hope American urbanism is NOT on the decline! I think if everyone had exposure to walkable and bikeable communities there would be no argument that those are much more enjoyable than their car-centric counterparts.

Anecdotally, I see more and more people millennials and gen z getting interested in the strong towns movement and other urbanist groups. We have a few good ones in Philly ourselves.

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Marko_Ramius1 t1_iwupaiz wrote

Hotel I understand because its next to Temple Med School/Hospital. But yeah, any large-scale apartment development will not be viable up there for at least 15 years

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Raecino t1_iww1taa wrote

Good luck to anyone moving there. Or anyone planning to move in any of the other new developments built smack dab in the middle of the hood, some built right next to the projects.

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XSC t1_iwxozl8 wrote

The Athletics are moving back to North Philly. That area is gonna boom!

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nalgene_wilder t1_iwve10i wrote

Dumb yuppies. They're the bread and butter of all these luxury apartments in crappy areas

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hdhcnsnd t1_iwwh9sc wrote

As a dumb yuppie I can say that I wouldn’t rent here lol.

Doesn’t take much of an income to be able to afford a nice apartment downtown with the way rent is in Philly compared to other cities.

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