DugganSC t1_ivg8twi wrote
Reply to comment by oldschoolskater in Fetterman predicts early Republican lead in vote counting due to changes by GOP lawmakers | The Hill by oldschoolskater
I think the argument is basically that, if early results are revealed, it could influence the election. Supposedly, there is already a similar effect where West Coast voting drops as the East Coast areas come back with preliminary results. People figure that the election is already over, since one side has a higher count, so they don't bother voting. Arguably, if all of these vote results are kept secret, there would be no effect like that. However, they are proceeding from the assumption that security is bad, and therefore they probably suspect that such preliminary results would get leaked.
As it is, I feel like our current method of news sources reporting exit polls as if they were actual numbers is somewhat deceptive, and manipulative.
Adam_Rahuba t1_ivho519 wrote
The argument is actually that Republicans get counted first. Then they look like they’re pulling a head and they have a massive lead so what they do is they start spreading disinformation about how democrats are cheating and somehow catching up and overtaking them even though they were in the lead and now all these new votes magically appear
slpgh t1_ivhsbso wrote
If you were to believe that it was possible to illegally add mail in votes then that model would work. Everyone new Dems were voting by mail, the argument that by now they knew how much they needed to win so new ballots were added.
Kidspud t1_ivh4xal wrote
Do you have any articles suggesting that effect? I've studied political science for quite a few years and never encountered research showing that early poll closures on the east coast have that impact.
DugganSC t1_ivh6l9w wrote
Honestly? No. It's one of those things I grew up hearing, which seemed to make sense. Doing a quick search turns up papers like "Do exit polls influence voting behaviors?" which are locked behind pay walls, but the excerpts seemed to indicate that there is an effect scene, albeit a small one, on West Coast voting based upon East Coast exit poll results.
As someone who has studied political science, presumably you may have better access to those scholarly articles than I do.
racinreaver t1_ivig43t wrote
Anecdotally living on the west coast I know folks that didn't go out to vote because of early projections from the east coast. It was more common in the past where you might have to wait in line for an hour or two in lousy weather, but most folks I know now do early voting.
slpgh t1_ivhslrv wrote
My understanding is that they have limited impact because most of the western states are not competitive at least in presidential elections.
And in midterms the effects are localized anyway
burritoace t1_ivguekn wrote
>if early results are revealed, it could influence the election
Maybe that's the argument but I've seen nothing to suggest that it is actually true. I don't even understand what the mechanism for "influence" is here - if people see the vote going one way it seems just as likely to encourage them to vote as not. The argument seems pretty half-baked.
>I feel like our current method of news sources reporting exit polls as if they were actual numbers is somewhat deceptive, and manipulative.
I certainly agree that the way these things are reported is not enlightening and contributes to confusion.
DugganSC t1_ivgxm9q wrote
> Maybe that's the argument but I've seen nothing to suggest that it is actually true. I don't even understand what the mechanism for "influence" is here - if people see the vote going one way it seems just as likely to encourage them to vote as not. The argument seems pretty half-baked.
If voting were zero cost, it probably wouldn't, but most people have to take time off of work, arrange for transport, get childcare, etc. And if it looks like a bygone conclusion, why bother?
burritoace t1_ivh6prw wrote
The people closely watching election returns come in are mostly not the people who make a last minute decision whether or not to vote
DugganSC t1_ivh7k6v wrote
shrug Dunno. Election coverage is easy to find, and a lot of people will likely be stepping out of their workplace at 5:00 or 6:00 p.m., and trying to make that final decision as to whether they want to make the effort. I could list a few cases I've known of people who made that last minute decision not to head to the polls, but the plural of anecdote isn't data.
Calm-Obligation-7772 t1_ivi5eh2 wrote
I, unfortunately, did this for the 2016 election. 🙃 Even though I was told I could leave work to vote, I never would have made it home and back in a reasonable amount of time on my break. It was only myself and one other employee closing and we weren't allowed to be alone so I couldn't leave early.
Thought there was no chance in hell Trump would win so I didn't end up voting. Biggest regret. I have not and will not ever miss another election.
IrrumaboMalum t1_ivhtcq1 wrote
It's not just "watching election returns." What if the news shows early voting numbers and says one party is up significantly and you were planning on going out to vote tomorrow.
Are you still going to vote if you're the opposing party? It seems hopeless for your candidate to win now, so why bother?
I'm fine with counting mail-in ballots early as long as the results are kept secure until close of polls - no leaks.
KentuckYSnow t1_ivhrfll wrote
If someone wasn't going to vote already they aren't going to change their mind day of.
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