Submitted by thecoffeejesus t3_11b5vs6 in singularity
DukkyDrake t1_j9w96tv wrote
>We’ve gone from horse and buggy to space stations in 100 years.
>What do people not understand about exponential growth?
None of that have anything to do with the current batch of AI tools being fit for a particular purpose. Nothing to do with if/when those tools will be made sufficiently reliable for unattended operation in the real world.
Some people fail to understand, just because you can imagine something in your mind, that does not necessarily mean others can definitely engineer a working sample within our personal time horizon, or ever.
ShidaPenns t1_j9xxtab wrote
Thanks to ChatGPT and Bing, there's going to be a ton of new money going into AI technology. On top of the honestly crazy amount that was already being invested.
visarga t1_ja55edi wrote
Probably money is the most important thing. $1B given by MS to OpenAI in 2019 became GPT-3.
thecoffeejesus OP t1_j9xmk9h wrote
You have a point, and I understand what you’re saying.
Obviously, these things need someone to create them. If climate change or nuclear war or something else doesn’t take us out, it’s more probable the not that we will figure out a way to engineer these tools.
I can’t remember the name of it, but there’s a philosophical question that says, “given infinite time, what is the probability of intelligence figuring out how to travel backwards in time and ensure it’s own creation?”
The answer is 100%.
Because given infinite time, everything that can happen will happen. If there is an infinitely long amount of time when things can happen, everything that’s finite will happen.
And I’m not seeing this thinking that you don’t know it, I’m just establishing a baseline.
It’s connected to what people talk about when they talk about simulation theory. If you keep going with that thought, it means that either we are the only reality that hasn’t figured out how to simulate a universe yet, or we live in a simulation.
There is a 50-50 chance that we live in a simulated universe.
So what does that have to do with your comment?
It means that it’s more likely than not that at some point in time, some species will figure out how to create artificial intelligence.
Either we are the species, or we are the artificial intelligence, or it actually hasn’t happened yet. But if the universe continues forever, it will happen at some point. And if it is possible for it to move backwards in time, it will, at some point, figure out how to go back in time to ensure it’s own creation.
Baturinsky t1_j9y1vql wrote
If time travel or FTL travel is not possible by the laws of physics, it's not possible. No amount of intelligence can change it.
Wyrade t1_ja0lfnm wrote
>Because given infinite time, everything that can happen will happen.
That is pretty stupid reasoning. There are infinite numbers between 0 and 1, yet they will never be 2.
thecoffeejesus OP t1_ja1yzay wrote
Because…that can’t happen. So, like I said, everything that can happen, will happen.
Wyrade t1_ja2sanu wrote
It can happen that somone writes a book.
But there can be an algorythm can writes random letters, yet it can provenly not be able to reproduce that book.
It's a fallacy to believe you actually know what can happen. And you just declared that traveling backwards in time is within the realm of possibility.
Given infinite time and a seemingly infinite randomness doesn't guarantee that every possible combination of everything will happen.
visarga t1_ja55tll wrote
That's meaningless. Even enumerating all games of Go is tedious, 10^170, more than 10^80 the number of atoms in the universe, and that's only a small corner of "everything that can happen". If you put two go boards side by side the number of state multiplies between them.
thecoffeejesus OP t1_ja5azdo wrote
Correct. Big numbers get bigger.
But if time is infinite, and matter isn’t, eventually all states of matter that can exist will, no matter how large that number is.
Think about it like this:
If you put an apple in a vacuum box, and let it sit there for infinite time, the apple will decay into nothingness.
But eventually, there will be a point in time when you can open the box, reach in, and grab an apple that’s exactly like the one you put in. Blemishes and everything.
It might be trillions and trillions of years from now, it might be tomorrow.
If nothing ever comes in or out of the box, the atoms that used to be the apple will cycle through every possible state, over and over, forever.
They will at some point in time be in every state they can possibly be.
If time is infinite and the box is inert, then there will be infinite points in time when you can open the box and find an apple that is in exactly the same state as the one that originally went inside the box. And every other kind of apple those atoms could make.
This is just a philosophical thought experiment, but it’s informing real world experiments.
People are working on figuring out if this is how our universe works or not.
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