73 comments at the time I saw this and not one of them gave much of an answer to your question...

So to start I think there are a couple foundational understandings you need to have to know what to look for. The first and most vital is exponential vs linear and experiencing gradual exponential gains through linear perception.

All of us perceive time and advancement as a gradual thing, despite the actual increasing rates of knowledge application (technology). This means that on a day to day, month to month basis, you won't commonly feel "pentacle" moments (like the GPT-4 demo) because most of the time the advancements are not presented as well or demonstrated so well, additionally the advancement for the first 30% takes longer than the last 70%. So it will always feel like nothing is happening for a long period of time, then feel like things rapidly happen at the end.

The next pentacle moment will likely be AGI, basically adult human level AI that does not require a prompt to do a variety of adult level tasks. Right now GPT and LLMs must be prompted and must have a user in order to have functionality, they operate within specific tasks at an adult level, but in practical intelligence are closer to a 10-13 year old with some pretty major limitations.

Now to the exponential trends, Moore's law was part of a much larger data set that predicted this back in 2004. Here is the precursor article and data (warning it's long and a lot)

https://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns

This is the actual data and projections, generally it has held true. Kurzweil wrote How to create a Mind a few years ago and some of the things to look for will be the hardware in 2025 that will be capable of close to adult brain simulation (the software will need to be done but that's when it's expected to have the hardware). Longevity escape velocity is another major metric for transhumanists, which is currently estimated at 2029ish, and superintelligent transhumans, IE beings with a synthesis of AI and Human capabilities that equate to the intelligence of hundreds, thousands, or millions of people today, is projected sometime in the mid-late 2030s.

Hardware advancements will happen first, then governments/DARPA will utilize them, then corporations, then everyone else. The run away effect is the actual exponential aspect to this, so from this point to several years until it happens, it will feel like nothing is happening (because that's the nature of exponential gains being experienced with gradual linearity.

Your best bet, everyone's best bet, would be to read Kruzweil, Micho, Bostrom, and others who have studied and written about the subject of what, how, and why. I would take most "doomers" like musk or gates, even Bostrom (as philosophy isn't exactly computer science) with a grain of salt. Kurzweil tends to be the one who speaks best to the reality even if he isn't always correct in his timeline of prediction (though he is close).