How do you guys actually think UBI will work?

Submitted by MelodiGreig t3_1264hie in singularity

I'm noticing people are talking about UBI without really considering how it'll work or how it'll still allow for a functioning economy/market. They have this simple idea of just "oh just use UBI"

Now im no economist but a few issues i've noticed with this is:

-UBI = everyone on it will have the same amount of money, for living costs and maybe a reasonable amount for leisure.

Won't this cause a huge reduction in sales of multiple kinds of luxury items that now cant be afforded and limit what kind of businesses can actually run in this type of economy?

-Not just that but it also feels like the government will eventually run out of money. UBI goes to civilians, UBI spent on stuff (food, water etc) money goes to company owners which is taxed at a % and goes back to the government.

The assumption here is that these company owners/CEOs benefitting from automation will also be spending their money which means the government eventually gets the amount they sent out back.

However, how much are you willing to bet that these CEOs wont be utterly self sufficient and have no need to spend money on basically anything at all?

I'm not sure if I can even consider the implications if they invest that money elsewhere as well to try and grow it infinitely like they already do now.

So in summary - many nonessential luxury business product based businesses will die, CEOs will be self sufficient and wont have to participate in the economy by buying things, gov likely will receive less money back than they send out over time... and these are just the problems I could think of in my fluey state lol.

So it comes across to me that in reality this most likely wont work- its either fullblown AGI post-scarcity communist paradise or nothing when mass unemployment becomes a thing.

Tell me what i'm missing?

1

Comments

You must log in or register to comment.

Dyeeguy t1_je7hwoa wrote

  1. People can still earn money other than UBI, which I am sure some people will be inclined to do
  2. Corporations / mega rich hoarding wealth is a current problem we are dealing with, it is unrelated to UBI
7

Xbot391 t1_je7l3sb wrote

How will people earn more money? All I can think of are VERY human jobs such as prostitution or in person counseling, etc.

2

Dyeeguy t1_je7lxyo wrote

I imagine some jobs will be really hard to automate, or too specific to make it worth it. Perhaps a piano tuner

I imagine some people will prefer humans for many positions, like a nanny for a child, or teachers. People may even pay a premium to interact with humans

And I am sure there will be an increase in entertainment related fields. Film, music, sports, videogames, podcasts etc

Maybe more people can start their own local small businesses leveraging automation and AI

5

Xbot391 t1_je7mejy wrote

That’s a good answer. I guess there’ll be ways to get more money but not many ways to get a lot more money?

2

D_Ethan_Bones t1_je7ia4b wrote

UBI will be a political thing, there are already politicians calling for it and there will be more of them as time goes on.

People will vote for UBI if they see endless wealth and none of it within their reach, and if there's enough of these people then UBI wins. The typical person isn't reading about AI daily, they'll vote for UBI because they were laid off by an oligarch then evicted by a corporate landlord.

If rich people can cut their production costs dramatically then they can throw around free product vastly more than they are already doing, to get their brand out and continue competing with the other rich people. This is its own thing that will run alongside the basic income movement but it'll all have bigbiz logos on it.

6

MichaelsSocks t1_je7joec wrote

> People will vote for UBI if they see endless wealth and none of it within their reach, and if there's enough of these people then UBI wins. The typical person isn't reading about AI daily, they'll vote for UBI because they were laid off by an oligarch then evicted by a corporate landlord.

This assumes that we don't have AGI/ASI at this point. I think by the time we see mass unemployment, we'll already have an AGI and ASI which will at that point make decisions for humanity and propose a far more sophisticated solution for reorganizing society than a UBI.

2

Loud_Clerk_9399 t1_je7ubp6 wrote

Ultimately, post money is the solution, where everyone is equal, where everyone makes the same, and everyone does what they choose. Status will be determined by reputation and charisma.

1

Loud_Clerk_9399 t1_je7u7aj wrote

UBI is a stopgap measure until we go to a post-money world. At that point, there will be no such thing as luxury. We will all be equal and we will all get the same rewards so to speak.

1

Equivalent-Ice-7274 t1_je7zo3z wrote

If almost all jobs were automated, then prices would plummet massively, and the government could tax corporations and the income of the wealthy, not just their spending. There would be no hiding from taxes. They could also implement price caps on any and all products.

1

CertainMiddle2382 t1_je9zu8v wrote

People in favor of UBI see themselves living the great life in Chiang Mai as you could today if you were given this money.

It wont happen like that, every body is going to receive UBI, and every body is going to want to go to Chiang Mai.

Prices will just adjust accordingly, but now money will be diluted and any productive venture yielding about the UBI, will simply disappear.

So people must learn to make Burritos at home right now, because Chipotle won’t be there for long…

1

Dyeeguy t1_jea0hsb wrote

People will want to live in Thailand when they receive basic income to live? I am not sure of that

"money being diluted" and "prices adjusting" implies there will be MORE money, I am not sure why that would be the case

1

CertainMiddle2382 t1_jea2o8h wrote

People spend far more for leisure than they do to renew their work potential.

If so the most sold car in the US would be a Daihatsu and not a F150 and planes would be empty because people would be spending all their money on math courses.

And that money put into non productive activities will have troubles moving away, because by definition they are non productive activities.

Nobody is paid to go to Disneyland, and everyone has to pay, astonishingly.

People will vote with their money, and what they want will inflate away…

1

Dyeeguy t1_jea4bzj wrote

I have no clue what you are saying. People will want to go to disneyland when they are provided with UBI? Why don't those same people go to disneyland now with their basic income from their job

1

CertainMiddle2382 t1_jea6sia wrote

Everything happens at the margins, the people who are working now and can’t afford going to DL will want to go if UBI allows them to.

And they are much more than DL can accommodate…

1

Dyeeguy t1_jea7d0e wrote

So the point of UBI is to give a basic income to live, not give people disneyland money

But it would also be great if people had money besides that LMFAO. You trying to paint it as a bad thing is one of the funniest responses I have seen to UBI. People have more money to spend on entertainment = more entertainment is created. They can make Disney planet

You are scared of a future where people are not living paycheck to paycheck, and can spend money on leisure? You think that is not sustainable?

Please dude, you have been brainwashed badly. Society doesn't have to be that way, there is no lack of space or resources on earth :)

instead of trying to maintain the current shit system, we can improve things :)

1

CertainMiddle2382 t1_jea8lpi wrote

You are mistaken, there is actually a huge scarcity of ressources on this planet.

US lifestyle is not scalable.

And of course UBI will allow people « not to live paycheck to paycheck », it is just that people think 1$ of UBI will allow them to buy the same as 1$ of today.

It is not, RV parks wont get bigger by UBI, Disneyland either, there won’t be more shoreline on the lake either.

UBI wont change a single thing to that apart making people who have the good stuff already even richer…

You can’t control what people are going to do with their UBI money, apart if you distribute it as coupons, like in the USSR or SNAP.

1

DesertBoxing t1_jea0271 wrote

Greatly reduced work hours with same pay.

1

GinchAnon t1_jee69tu wrote

I see it as several things coming together.

1 . Cost for basic necessities found way way down from automation. If you can get basic needs met for cheap than Modest UBI could be more effective.

2 . People having their basic needs met from the distribution being able to make money order ways, such as hand crafting nice things or at least creatively upgrading basic stuff in artistic ways.

3 . #2 could be worthwhile because, basic needs being met already you would only need to be working on those things and charging enough to have some extra rather than to live off of. If it's an art and a hobby and the goal is to share and perpetuate that rather than try to make a living, it's easier to chart m charge and afford to pay.

Like what do you want to do off you didn't need to make a living? Wouldn't it likely be able to be monetized if you only needed to support that hobby and make a little extra spending money?

1

Alchemystic1123 t1_jefrgaz wrote

No one can predict what the future of our economy is going to look like, so no one can answer this really. UBI will probably be used temporarily as we transition from our current socio-economic system into whatever the future world of AI economics looks like, but I doubt that UBI, or even the concept of money as we know it now, is going to be around for long.

1