Sashinii t1_irc3kya wrote
Reply to comment by Yuli-Ban in “Extrapolation of this model into the future leads to short AI timelines: ~75% chance of AGI by 2032” by Dr_Singularity
Your predictions aren't far off from my own.
Do you have any predictions for when ASI and the singularity will happen?
Yuli-Ban t1_irc47b4 wrote
Quantitative ASI: right after AGI is created because there's not much of a tangible barrier between subhuman, par-human, and superhuman task completion. Could be as soon as 2024 with "frozen superintelligence."
Qualitative ASI: probably mid 2030s. We'll probably need a lot of neurofeedback data to get to strong AGI and, then, true superintelligence.
Singularity: not going to lie, I have my doubts about a Kurzweilian Singularity. I think the effects of ASI will resemble it for a while, so again, 2030s into 2040s.
Edit: Should probably stress that quantitative ASI is better described as "superhuman general task automation." We already have superhuman AI, in very narrow fields like chess, go, and arithmetic. You can consider these narrow task automation programs since the "AI" moniker is tenuous to begin with.
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