chimgchomg t1_it5t8dr wrote
My belief is that the human factor will be the bottleneck to the adoption of disruptive technologies as we see AI progress. I think its probable that AGI will be capable of replacing humans in just about every industry, and yet there will still be many humans working in those same industries for years to come. This is because the growth rate of the economy will start to become very high, and investors who still have an old fashioned way of thinking will continue to start and run human-powered businesses. Look at the way companies are run today, they are sufficiently funded to spend years developing prototypes that may never be feasible in the market. Twice-yearly power point presentations are enough to convince investors and executives to continue paying all of their employees even if they're developing something that is obviously worthless. Accelerating growth will make it even easier for investors to justify throwing money at startups, and big companies which do integrate AI into their workflow will have all kinds of extra money to reinvest in their own workforce. In a way this might even be necessary as it will be very hard to precisely time when a human job can be replaced with an AI or a robot. Two years too early, and you wasted all your money. Two years too late, and the market has already been captured. But it might turn out that wasting money for 2 years is more worthwhile than never getting a chance at all.
Just look at how much money Meta has wasted on the Metaverse. This is the level of miscalculation made by a company that was originally a pioneer in social media.
AdditionalPizza OP t1_it6q677 wrote
I think a lot of people equate AGI to a human in artificial form. But 'general' is the key word. It will have the general ability that humans have, but will be so much faster than a human that whichever companies start getting close to AGI first are going to shoot up in value at break neck speed.
Any company that gets to AGI or even close first will start making waves across all industries like energy, medicine, housing, automotive, etc.
I don't think many, if any, significant companies are going to stick to their roots and plug along with humans. Corporations exist to make investors money, period. They don't exist to make investors money by keeping humans on board for the sake of "what's right" and having values. They make money by any means necessary so their stock price goes up. Small businesses maybe I guess? But small business is dying anyway.
Any company that doesn't use the advanced productivity that AI will bring will fall into insignificance quickly. And this isn't a case of a board of directors carefully deciding if they should implement AI and lay off all employees. It will replace some employee tasks. Then in 2 months another wave. Then another month more employees. And so on.
justowen4 t1_it64aj5 wrote
Meh, just a bit early. We all make this mistake when we are isolated plutocrats
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