I voted for 3 to 4 years. Here is the breakdown:

The dates in parenthesis refer to when I currently believe the referred technologies will be available as a published, finished, and usable product, instead of codes, papers, beta software, or demos floating around. Also, NeRF just seems to be glorified photogrammetry to me, which at best would produce good conventional 3D models, but that just seems to be a subpar workflow compared to post processing on top of a a crude 3D base or just generating the videos from scratch.

Tell me your own predictions for each category.

Capacity Available

(Q2 2024) Produces realistic and stylized videos in 720p resolution and 24 fps via applying post processing on crude 3D input. The videos are almost temporally consistent frame to frame, yet require occasional correction. Watch the GTA demo, if you haven't already. It could look like a more polished version of that.

(Q1 2025) Produces realistic and stylized videos in 720p resolution and 24 fps from text or low entry-barrier software, and the result is nearly indistinguishable from organic production, although with occasional glitches.

(Q3 2026) AI produces realistic and stylized videos in high resolution and frame rate from text or low entry-barrier software, and the result is truly indistinguishable from organic production. Emerging software allow for fine tuning, such as camera position, angle, speed, focal lenght, depth of field, etc.

(Q4 2027) Dedicated software packages for AI video generation are in full motion, making almost all traditional 3D software as we know obsolete. Realistic high resolution videos can be crafted with the click of a button or a text prompt already, but professionals use these softwares for further fine control.

Temporal and Narrative Consistency

(Q1 2025) Temporal consistency is good frame to frame, yet not perfect, and visual glitches still occur from time to time, requiring one form or another of manual labor to clean up. In addition, character and environment stability or coherence across several minutes of video is not yet possible.

(Q1 2026) The videos are temporally consistent frame to frame, without visual flickering or errors, but lack long-term narrative consistency tools across several minutes of video, such as character expressions, mannerisms, fine object details, etc.

(Q3 2027) Perfect visuals with text input and dedicated software capable of maintaining character and environment stability to the finest details and coherence across several minutes or hours of video.

Generalization Effectiveness

(Current) Only capable of producing what it has been trained for, and does not generalize into niche or highly specific demands, including advanced or fantastical elements for which an abundance of data does not exist.

(Q1 2025) Does generalize into niche or highly specific demands, such as advanced or fantastical elements for which an abundance of data does not exist, yet the results are subpar compared to organic production.

(Q2 2027) Results are limitless and perfectly generalize into all reasonable demands, from realistic, to stylized, fantastical, or surreal.

Computational Resources

(Current) Only supercomputers can generate videos with sufficient high resolution and frame rate for more than a couple of seconds.

(Q2 2025) High end personal computers or expensive subscription services need to be employed to achieve sufficient high resolution and frame rate for more than a couple of seconds.

(Q4 2028) An average to low end computer or cheap subscription service is capable of generating high resolution and frame rate videos spanning several minutes.