Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

IndependenceRound453 t1_ixabthf wrote

Reply to comment by 4e_65_6f in How much time until it happens? by CookiesDeathCookies

>If you don't think it will happen you're either very pessimistic or haven't been paying attention.

It depends on what your definition of the singularity is. If it's human/superhuman-level AI, I can see it happening one day, sure. But if it's this mind-boggling event where everything gets completely transformed in the blink of eye, that's where you lose me. A belief in the latter is rooted in fantaticism, IMO. In any case, I certainly don't expect it to happen in the middle of the next US presidential term.

3

4e_65_6f t1_ixae7yz wrote

>It depends on what your definition of the singularity is.

It's just when AI will surpass human intelligence in general. That is what people mean by singularity. It's when there's no task that you would be able to perform better than the computer.

After that point AI starts developing/helping research and the timescales shift drastically. This is why people imply there will be a "burst" of technology.

0

IndependenceRound453 t1_ixag8ze wrote

If we ever succeeded at building AGI, I suspect that the change that would come afterwards would be gradual, as it is in the best interest of humanity for society to change gradually as supposed to suddenly. Regardless, like I've already said, I'm skeptical that such an event is a mere few years away from taking place. That would imply that we'd be going 0 to 100, real quick (lol), though of course by 0 I don't mean we don't have useful AI today, I'm just implying that the leap from now to AGI would feel like that.

−1

4e_65_6f t1_ixasy0t wrote

What fact would have to change in order for you to think the singularity is near? Like what else do you think is missing?

If you can't really point out what you'd think is "indication that the singularity is near" that hasn't happened then it's not really skepticism but cynicism.

1