Exponential growth in anything is rarely sustained indefinitely. It comes in bursts.

I expect the tech behind ChatGPT to start to hit a ceiling before too long. Its job is basically to coherently summarize its training data relevant to the prompt, and it's already super impressive on prompts for which adequate training data exist. It will cause disruptive changes in parts of society built around the assumption that a human wrote something. 2023 will probably bring cooler art and more believable writing as things like ChatGPT and Dall-E are refined.

However, there isn't really a smooth path for incremental improvement from this to tasks that require understanding and thought, making logical deductions from extremely sparse training data with an understanding of their credibility and connections, and solving novel problems. I'm not saying AI won't crack that nut eventually, but it's a different and harder problem that will require new breakthroughs rather than incremental improvements.

I expect exponential growth in that area whenever AI gets good enough to really help AI researchers make the next breakthroughs and start a positive feedback loop of recursive self-improvement. But it's not clear that ChatGPT is the start of that cycle. Humans might leverage it to gain some efficiency in their work, but that's more of a linear improvement than exponential.