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questionasker577 OP t1_j69u310 wrote

Reply to comment by GayHitIer in Why did 2003 to 2013 feel like more progress than 2013 to 2023? by questionasker577

Does AGI necessarily abide by an S-curve given how unique it is relative to other technologies? I’m struggling to think through this

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GayHitIer t1_j69ukyk wrote

Higher s curves.

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questionasker577 OP t1_j69uzmg wrote

What does that mean?

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GayHitIer t1_j69xhbh wrote

Exponential bigger advancements, AGI will be a huge S curve maybe so big it will just look like a line.

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questionasker577 OP t1_j69xxlr wrote

So an exponential growth curve rather than an S-curve?

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Hotchillipeppa t1_j69yw79 wrote

It might still technically be an "s curve" but the curve up with ai will be so high that the s shouldnt come down for a long while.

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Good-AI t1_j6dzdrk wrote

It might be a J curve. The first and the last one.

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GayHitIer t1_j69yran wrote

Combination of the two. But still s curves.

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Nmanga90 t1_j6b2rkf wrote

Definitely an S curve still. Looking back at progress, it has been very, very slow until now. Basically the invention of the transformer changed everything

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Ortus14 t1_j6apv1z wrote

All technology abides by S-curves, all life (including Ai), and all evolution.

In evolution the start of a new S-curve is called punctuated equilibrium.

In computational theory it has to do with breaking out of "local maximum". In game theory it may be referred to as breaking out of a "equilibrium".

It's important to note that these are all cascading S-curves. That is to say, smaller S-curves on-top of larger S-curves, which themselves are on top of larger S-curves. If you ever think progress is slowing down, zoom out.

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