Thoughtful writing, OP! Well written.

Here is the big “if” with your entire argument about this being a good deal for Open AI: that is a HUGE AMOUNT of money to repay to Microsoft and VCs. We’re talking years and years of consistently high/increasing profitability and market domination before the rights are back to Open AI exclusively.

Does anyone really think OpenAI is going to be the dominant AI in 5 years? 10 years? Do you not think Microsoft or a competitor will siphon the tech during that time? It’s a huge bet on themselves, and a huge bet against others to not catch up.

My point is: I wouldn’t put too much value in the “they’ll get it back” aspect at the end of all this. Microsoft knows it’ll be a widely replicated, aged piece of old meat at that point.

But outside of that aspect, I agree with the rest of your points. Logical all around.