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GeneralZain t1_j3g3ghr wrote

haha remember when people told me I was CRAZY and HYPER OPTIMISITC for saying it was only months away a few months ago? I do... :)

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I told you so :)

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Milkstrietmen t1_j3gn4my wrote

> haha remember when people told me I was CRAZY and HYPER OPTIMISITC

I don't even know who you are

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GeneralZain t1_j3ixtep wrote

Then I guess this wasn't for you?

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TFenrir t1_j3h18du wrote

So you think you'll be able to put in a prompt and get a full, 90 minute coherent video with this update? I would bet big money against that - not even considering things like audio.

The models that Stability have experience with and have shown so far would absolutely not be able to handle anything like that.

However if it's something more like... Style transfer on a full video? I would not be surprised.

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GeneralZain t1_j3ioegg wrote

I think eventually we will get there in the same way that image diffusion has evolved in the last year.

I doubt we will have anything *INSANE* at first, but it will still be impressively long compared to what we have now (cog video)

I have no idea how good or bad it will be, but I've seen older AI's do long form video before by training on car or Minecraft videos (something on the lines of 10 minutes or so? I forgot where that was tho...)

Its just funny how sure people are that I'm too optimistic, when literally every week in the past year we got a breakthrough and the comments are always something like "WOW THAT HAPPENED FASTER THAN I THOUGHT IT WOULD!!!" or "ITS GOING SO FAST!"

progress gets faster, and last year (2022) was a real speed up, we all felt it. this year will be even faster and if the right shit gets made, the right combo of AI, its over. we just need one that is good enough to self improve. how or when that happens is anybody's guess realistically, but I have a strong gut feeling its gonna be some time this year.

regardless though its gonna be a crazy year.

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idranh t1_j3gfqzj wrote

Credit where credit is due. You called it, and held your ground.

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Equivalent-Ice-7274 t1_j3oslkh wrote

Dude, I always thought you were absurdly optimistic, but your predictions from years ago are very accurate! WTF are you doing to see this?

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GeneralZain t1_j3ovt9w wrote

I'm just looking at pace of change. we suck at exponentials, so any prediction that FEELS realistic timeline wise will be too slow.

its also really important to remember that once you start feeling and seeing the exponential change, it means we are close to the extremely quick part.

once the lake is halfway full, it is only one doubling away from being full :)

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Equivalent-Ice-7274 t1_j3p4smi wrote

What’s your prediction for 2025-26? Any autonomous robots by then?

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GeneralZain t1_j3psiwo wrote

tbh it depends on what happens this year. if we get AGI, we get everything else pretty soon after...

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Equivalent-Ice-7274 t1_j3r4dra wrote

I remember that guy Set/ai talking about how 2023 was going to be the year that AI really takes off and it looks like he was right, although his reasoning was cryptic and hard to interpret.

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[deleted] t1_j3gb4sv wrote

[deleted]

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GeneralZain t1_j3gbe4x wrote

I never said anything about budget, or quality, just that it would be possible.

and it seems It will be... that's a W for me :)

Edit: looks like the reply was deleted...oh well

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