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red75prime t1_j5kjfq2 wrote

I expect AGI around 2030.

I think that the most likely reason (but still not sufficiently probable to affect my estimate) for extending AGI timeline is that the brain does use quantum acceleration for some parts of its functionality.

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TopicRepulsive7936 t1_j5nitb5 wrote

If it does it only means that quantum computation is really easy.

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red75prime t1_j5np70q wrote

It could still require considerable time to get enough hints on how the brain does that to implement it technologically. Evolutionary solutions can be messy.

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