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Thatingles t1_j52nhox wrote

Here's the thing. With the possibility being so close, you could argue the date is now being more heavily influenced by the pessimists. If the prediction date is 2027 that only gives the optimists 5 years to play with, but the pessimists can go as far out the other side as they want.

In a sense it doesn't matter because it will happen when it happens and the prediction date is like reading tea leaves - a thing you look at to distract yourself whilst you come up with a forecast.

It is worth remembering that technology moves at the rate of the fastest. Everyone else has to catch up to the new point and restart from there. What I'm trying to say is that predicted dates reflect what each individual knows but actual dates will reflect only what the fastest groups achieve. If Bob predicts 2035 based on his knowledge, but doesn't know that Sue has already achieved (but not published) several of the steps on his timeline, Bob's prediction is worthless. We obviously don't know ahead of time who falls into which category, all we can say for sure is that the pessimists are more likely to be caught out.

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dasnihil t1_j55450p wrote

i just don't get the idea of counting days, are you guys like depressed or something? what do you think will happen the day, let's say nvidia announces that they have achieved neural network to run on a neuromorphic hardware in a very optimal way.

big announcement but we'll all forget about it in a couple of days :)

after that it's a game of implementation and industrialization. how can we make our industries more powerful and take this human enterprise on a next level. i doubt that the leaders and capitalists would have any desire for a utopian society with shared resources and harmony. that kind of ask will take at least a 100 years to be implemented on our society. this is a big change.

i personally don't expect to see much significant changes in my lifetime where i'll get a $500/mo check from some AI Labor Law Allowance. maybe in the coming generations if we play our cards right and don't wipe out all lives and any hopes for artificial life/intelligence.

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RabidHexley t1_j56s60f wrote

> that kind of ask will take at least a 100 years to be implemented on our society. this is a big change.

I personally have come around to the thought that something like UBI being implemented due to automation won't be from compassionate, socialist ideals, but simply because it will become necessary for capitalism to continue functioning.

Reaching a point where you can produce arbitrary amounts of goods without needing to pay nearly anyone across numerous economic sectors is a recipe for rapid deflation. UBI would become one of the only practical methods of keeping the wheels turning and the money flowing.

Maybe after years of it being the norm it would lead to a cultural shift towards some sort of a properly egalitarian society, but it would start because hyper-efficiency resulting in economic collapse isn't good for anyone including the wealthy.

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