Submitted by blueSGL t3_10gg9d8 in singularity
icedrift t1_j534dwy wrote
Does metaculus only poll people in the field and verify credentials or can anybody submit an estimate? If it's the latter, why take any stock in it? AI seems like one of those things that attracts a lot of fanatics who don't know what they're talking about.
Polls of industry veterans tend to hover around a 40% change of AGI by 2035
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