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Borrowedshorts t1_j53ksqo wrote

Reply to comment by icedrift in I was wrong about metaculus, (and the AGI predicted date has dropped again, now at may 2027) by blueSGL

There are two types of AI experts. Those who focus their efforts on a very narrow subdomain and then there are those who study the problem from a broader lens. The latter group who are AGI experts and who have actually studied the problem tend to be very optimistic on timelines. I'd trust the opinion of those who have actually studied the problem vs those who haven't. There are numerous examples of experts in narrow subdomains being wrong or just completely overshadowed by changes they could not see.

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AsuhoChinami t1_j53omnk wrote

No way icedrift and techno-skeptics cannot be wrong on anything ever, AGI in 2150 at EARLIEST and you're delusional if you think otherwise cuz I say so lmao

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SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j546mre wrote

I think most experts fit in the latter group, though, and the ones who have very optimistic timelines are a minority in that group too, and not just in general.

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