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PhilosophusFuturum t1_j4pg0c0 wrote

Remember that technology advances in an S curve. First there is the current paradigm, then a major advancement causes rapid change. After that change has been explored, a new paradigm takes hold and progress slows down.

Right now looks very exciting like how the late 2000’s and early 2010’s looked very exciting. And the world did change drastically after the 00’s-10’s tech revolution. But the rest of the 2010’s was somewhat sleepy in comparison to that era.

We are now on a massive upward slope due to massive advances in machine learning. The exponential beginning of the new paradigm shift has begun, and will likely stagnate somewhat in a few years. We will get way more advanced in the coming years than most people expect, but less so than many people on this sub would hope for.

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Redditing-Dutchman t1_j4pjhaf wrote

This. On a long time scale it looks like a neat exponential line, but in reality there are many plateaus.

Remember how we had the 3D printing hype and everyone on Reddit was saying that in 5 to 10 years everyone was printing all their plates and cups. Then it turns out there are quite a few issues to get to that last step (ultrafast printing with incredible precision is still very far off for example, especially for a decent price)

As these AI models get better and better I personally think we will hit a gap where we just can't get to the next step. (for example reliable, well reasoning AI that can be used for purposes where failing can be costly or dangerous) .

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ohimjustakid t1_j4rxwe1 wrote

>Remember how we had the 3D printing hype and everyone on Reddit was saying that in 5 to 10 years everyone was printing all their plates and cups.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/3d-printed-guns-canada-increase-1.6708049 Yea not like we have literal warehouses full of 3D printed gun parts with ability to print receivers with metallic plastics. Even then the plastic receivers can literally pump out thousands of rounds until they begin cracking. Not like any legit revolutionary movement could use that though, let alone criminals!

It's not like China happens to have 1/3 of the AI companies in the world and is set on their 2030 goal. 2024 being the 75th anniversary of the PLA in time with US presidential election that is bound to be the most polarizing year yet, which is cool cause its not like foreign enemies take advantage of this polarization for their own autocratic means.

Nor are there complete rogue states like North Korea or Iran who have in the past spent millions on counterfeit production, nuclear weapons and cyber attacks.

It's not like the Manhattan Project was so top secret that not even the US Congress knew about it until the bombs dropped.

AI and ML is just like NFTs, sure it gets a lot of traction now but it's not like it can be used for practically any industry, let alone big corps like Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft who just value their human labor WAY more than cheap, efficient computer automation!

We all should fully expect an AI winter because this shit is just so gimicky and its not like the entire globe is getting in on the tech to keep up with an ever expanding field of cybercrime!

Too bad there isn't a way to learn all this stuff for free before making an informed opinion on the carrier pigeon service we're using... OH WAIT

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TopicRepulsive7936 t1_j4rfxul wrote

>Remember that technology advances in an S curve.

Single technologies do, not the whole of technology.

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