This is a rewrite of a post i wrote long ago.
(Forgive me if it sounds somewhat like a rant)
The Fermi Paradox is the name for the conflict between the high statistical estimates on the probability of aliens, and the lack of evidence for such aliens. There are numerous possible solutions to this conflict, like for example, that aliens destroy themselves, that aliens dont exist, they are too far away, they are more alien than we think...and so on.
I wanted to share my personal opinion on what is the solution to this conflict. My personal opinion is that aliens are too far away, that our radio searches are pathetic, and that we probably have already detected them. Assuming that the German astrophysicist Sebastian von Hoerner´s assumptions that the average distance between civilizations is 1000 light years is correct, here is some reasons why i believe this solution:
- As far as I have heard and known, current telescopes find it extremely difficult to observe any Earth-like planets 1000 light years away or further. Take for example Kepler-452b, a potential earth-like superearth, our current telescopes find it very, very hard at the time to try and directly study this superearth. We cant study its atmosphere as it is too remote. This example means that any Earth-like planets that are further than 1000 light years away are probably currently undetected, or if they arent, they cannot be studied until we have sufficiently advanced technology. Kepler 452-b might very well have a civilization like ours right there at this moment, but we just cant actually observe them.
- SETI´s radio signal search attempts are honestly, pathetic, but its understandable given the big size of space. Why?- They are unable to constantly listen for radio signals on multiple targets (especially multiple planets) for decades. They can either listen to a handful (if not, one) of targets for a year or more, or scan millions of targets for only a small amount of time. We cannot listen to millions of targets for decades, as it would probably be too costly, and probably unwilling. (Why decades? Well, its a realistic timeframe to allow for a radio signal to reach Earth.) [source 2]- The galaxy is vast. It seems that SETI forgets that. A planet is not a star. A planet is a small ball orbiting a much bigger star, which is separated from other stars by hundreds of thousands of astronomical units (and time, too!). For us to ever find a radio signal, we have to just pray to any aliens that they saw our planet, and sent a radio signal directly to it. It must be pointed DIRECTLY at Earth. That means that SETI also must have their telescopes pointed at the correct time this signal arrives. Space is just unfathomably big.- Time is a massive factor that is often excluded. Because of time, an alien civilization could have very well sent a signal 1,933 years ago, and went undetected, because we simply were not at the correct time to receive it. An alien civilization could also send a signal in the next 1,405 years. Time is such a massive factor that it is in fact a potential solution on its own to the Fermi Paradox (aliens exist and they are common but they often dont exist at the same time to be detected). This absolutely must be taken into account when searching for radio signals. SETI doesnt seem to do this, and later questions why they did not find a radio signal after listening a target for 25 days.- We once scanned 10 million stars for signs of an alien radio source, by guess what? By listening to some region of space for just 17 hours, on the frequency range between 98–128 MHz . Yeah, thats all we did. We attempted to search for an alien signal despite us forgetting how vast space is, how much of a factor time is, how primitive our technology is currently, and how an alien signal would even look like. And we found nothing. Then we acted surprised. We are monkeys when searching for aliens. [source 1]
- On me saying that we have probably already detected them, i present to you, the Wow! signal. Its not much of a surprise, but these are some characteristics that make me believe it is an alien radio signal [source 3 for more information] :- Compared to the background at that time, it was over 30 times stronger than background noise.- The radio signal matched expectations of what an alien radio signal would be. [source 4]. Its intensity gradually peaked for the first 36 seconds, before reaching its peak intensity, then gradually decreased for the next 36 seconds.
This was the Wow! signals signal intensity versus time, plotted.
- It was detected in the frequency of 1420 megaherts, a frequency that was proposed byscientists that alien civilizations would most likely communicate on, since it is the frequency ofhydrogen, the most common element in the entire universe. [source 5]- Considering all the facts i previously talked about about the search for radio signals, the Wow!Signal matches what we would see if we ever detected a radio signal. The most interesting factthat aligns with the Wow Signal is that any alien radio signals would have to be directed right atour planet in order for us to have a chance to detect it. The fact that this..was headed directly forEarth, is a strong point on why this signal was probably aliens.
- The comet hypothesis was disproven. [source 6]
The fact that this signal was never detected again could potentially make it not alien in origin, but considering the fact we sent our famous Arecibo message only one time, i find this unlikely to be a game changer.
With all of this information combined, i personally believe that the Wow! signal was the very first alien radio signal ever received. What i do have in question though is that it appeared to be unmodulated, which is odd for a radio signal being sent into space. I want to know what are the curving lines presented in the plot after the Wow! Signal reached its lowest intensity.
Anyway, I just wanted to share my personal opinion on the Fermi Paradox, and on the Wow! Signal, since it was frustrating to me to find it receive so little attention. Feel free to correct me on any information ive provided, or to clarify anything.
To sum all of this up, we basically are not technologicaly advanced enough to find them, and that the Wow Signal is a strong candidate for an alien radio signal, and that i personally think it is.
Sources:
- https://www.cnet.com/science/astronomers-find-no-signs-of-alien-tech-after-scanning-over-10-million-stars/?utm_source=reddit.com2https://astronomy.com/magazine/ask-astro/2017/08/how-seti-searches3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wow!_signal4 https://www.edn.com/big-ear-receives-wow-signal-august-15-1977/5https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/Archaeology_Anthropology_and_Interstellar_Communication_TAGGED.pdf page 13.6 6http://naapo.org/WOWCometRebuttal.html
EDIT﹕I never knew SETI already knew of these problems when searching for alien life. I always thought they never did because didnt ever see them bring up these problems. For example, when i read https://seti.berkeley.edu/wow/, they never brought up these problems to show that their results could still be proven wrong. I know now that they do know about all of this.
Also, to answer the questions multiple people have asked me in the comments on just why the hell do we need to do all of this radio searching stuff, and why havent they simply colonized the galaxy by now, please read https://www.reddit.com/r/coolguides/comments/fy9965/comment/fn1c3g5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3. I found this amazing to read, although i have no idea how actually true any of the information in these comments are. These 2 comments didnt receive more attention. TDLR (you´re lazy), there arent any galactic civilizations because we monkeys have underestimated massively how hard it is to colonize a galaxy, and there arent any aliens on Earth because we have also underestimated massively how hard it would be to find us.
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