Submitted by Sorin61 t3_z8ib3s in technology
KickBassColonyDrop t1_iydmxv8 wrote
Reply to comment by en_zymes in Competitors chip away at Tesla's US electric vehicle share by Sorin61
300M quarterly is government subsidies across an average quarterly revenue of $3Bn. So about 10%. That drops to 6.7% when averaged across the entire year. This number over the last 2-3 years has been progressively declining.
The irony of the government subsidies is that basically Tesla has excess EV credits, because they don't have any ICE vehicles, being an EV company, under present wording of the subsidy law. Meanwhile, Ford, GM, etc. All didn't make enough EVs YoY to meet that subsidy.
So what happened? Ford and GM bought the EV credits from Tesla for cash. Those credits were turned in and Ford/GM got some added tax breaks or assistance in sales of their products for investing accordingly.
Fun fact: this cash Tesla got from GM and other legacy automakers via EV credits sales ended up paying for Giga Austin and Giga Berlin. Yeah, that's right. Tesla build their two newest factories across two continents based off of cash from selling EV credits they got automatically from being enrolled in the program to their competitors who didn't make enough EVs to qualify.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32346670/other-automakers-paid-tesla-record-354-million/
> but last summer, it was revealed that GM and FCA had agreed to buy credits from Tesla.
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> UPDATE 7/22/2020: Tesla reported that it had earned $428 million in regulatory credits during the second quarter of this year, besting the $354 million posted last quarter.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/tesla-electric-vehicle-regulatory-credits-explained.html
> In a push to reduce carbon emissions, governments around the world have introduced incentives for automakers to develop electric vehicles or very low-carbon emitting cars. Credits are given to carmakers that build and sell environmentally friendly vehicles.
> In the U.S., California and at least 13 other states have rules surrounding regulatory credits. They require auto manufacturers to produce a certain number of so-called zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) based on the total number of cars sold in that particular state.
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> These carmakers are required to have a certain amount of regulatory credits each year. If they can't meet the target, they can buy them from other companies that have excess credits.
> Because Tesla only sells electric cars which come under the ZEV category, the company always has excess regulatory credits and can effectively sell them at a 100% profit.
Emphasis mine.
> Last month, Reuters reported that a joint venture between German automaker Volkswagen and Chinese state-owned manufacturer FAW, agreed to buy credits from Tesla in China.
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> Since Tesla receives all these regulatory credits for free, it can essentially sell them for a 100% profit. This has been behind its recent profitable quarters.
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> One example is Stellantis, a company formed through the merger of France's PSA Group and Italy's Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. Stellantis bought about 2 billion euros ($2.43 billion) of European and U.S. green credits from Tesla between 2019 and 2021, according to Reuters.
Emphasis mine.
While it's true that these credits are going away as others are making EVs too, Tesla is uniquely advantaged because they don't have an albatross around their neck involving their legacy ICE business. Additionally, once Austin and Berlin fully ramp, they'll hit 2M vehicles a year and they're talking about announcing their next Gigafactory build location by year's end, which will either be Canada or South Korea.
Ford, GM, Chrysler, Toyota are all talking about hitting run rates of production of around 4-500k/year by 2025. Tesla will achieve 1.2M by the end of this year, 2M by end of next year, 2.5M by 2024, and 3M by 2025. Even with all of legacy auto firing on all cylinders, Tesla's manufacturing advantage puts them at around 1M+ year delivery excess of its competitors.
And all of this before you consider the IRA act and all the free cash Tesla is going to get based on everything it already does:
- In house battery = cash
- V2G if enabled = cash
- Supercharger/Megacharger Network = cash
- Megapacks & Powerwalls = cash
- Solar roofs = cash
And that for the next 10 years. There's a reason why GM announced that it's going to get into battery storage business. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/gm-energy-launches-to-connect-homes-businesses-with-ev-chargers-energy-storage.html
They did the math and realized how much $$$ the gov is going to give out via IRA for the next 10 years to Tesla (by the virtue of simply existing) because they're already in this space and already have sold close to 20GW of capacity that they can capitalize on, and GM wants some of it going forward too.
Tesla doesn't need the government subsidies. It gets them at 100% profit, because these subsidies exist for Tesla's competitors so that they can catch up to Tesla. But, you can't discriminate subsidy grants, so it gets them all the same. And that free capital is applied to further expansion.
Which. Further. Widens. The. Moat.
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