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nkrgovic t1_iwtwio7 wrote

Reply to comment by ctoph in The Only Way the U.S. Can Win the Tech War with China by Vailhem

That much I understand, if you stop ASML exporting to China (which is, as you've said a company based in the Nederlans), you stop China from having advanced industry - and are setting them back probably at least a decade. Developing EUV lithography is an incredibly hard process. Now, mind you, preventing them to do upgrades, to what they might have a contractual obligation, is a big deal. You're asking them to take a law suit, and the US has, AFAIK, no means to force a company from NL to take a huge loss.

I'm interested in how will this impact the rest of the world. Are the factories in China used to the rest of the world? Will this impact the global economy in any way? Also, what happens to stuff made in China? If Apple is making an iPad in China, does it have to stop because M2 is an advanced chip? What about Razer and laptops with GTX 3080? Again, will it impact global industry?

Finally, on a theoretical note, I still don't understand how do you prevent export of algorithms....

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gizamo t1_iwvor2g wrote

The US CHIPS Act is getting companies to build fabs in the US. Those fabs will be mass producing chips starting in ~2024-2025. Until then, reduced output of Chinese chips would definitely affect the economy, particularly for industries that use lower-end chips (e.g. automobiles). Restrictions on manufacturing/assembly of devices in China would hurt more industries in the US, but most of that is negligible. If China were to attack Taiwan, that would tank the US economy probably worse than the great recession, but not as bad as the great depression. It would also probably start WWIII, and at that point, theoreticals go out the window. Literally no one knows what would happen at that point.

Exporting an algorithm means to share it outside the country of its origin.

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