Theo had a pretty good breakdown of Copilot in its current state: https://youtu.be/yIZqIMNvqjg, which is certainly not replacing anyone yet.

My point was about its potential beyond the, as you correctly put it, "big ifs".

Fireship's quick tid but was also a pretty reasonable take, imo: https://youtu.be/eGE-tFalwpA it's also mostly inline with your opinion.

I also agree that the jobs of Jr. devs will largely be changed, and many won't be obsoleted. However, depending on those IFs, I could also see one Jr dev being able to do the work of a few or dozen Jr devs, maybe more...or, maybe not. Lol. Who knows.