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lightsongtheold t1_j11al12 wrote

A great week for Wednesday. Its 173960000 hours worked out at 25.8 million equivalent complete viewings. Only a -35.5% drop from last week. Through 4 weeks Wednesday is at 177.3 million equivalent complete viewings!

For comparison that second only to Squid Game (187.3 million) and well in front of third placed Stranger Things s4 (96.5 million). Stranger Things might top Wednesday in the hours viewed metric (due to having almost double the runtime of Wednesday) but Wednesday is now by far the biggest English language Netflix show in the equivalent complete viewings metric!

A decent week two for Harry & Megan. It worked out at 16.9 million in equivalent complete viewings. Very good.

Not a great debut week for Noah Centineo’s The Recruit. It opened to 7.2 million. Very soft and it is probably already in trouble and likely for cancellation. Both Resident Evil (10.2 million) and Fate: the Winx Saga s2 (8 million) opened higher than The Recruit and were cancelled. The only US drama debut show to open lower than this in 2022 and get renewed was The Lincoln Lawyer (5.5 million) but The Lincoln Lawyer was a weird show that performed super well in weeks two, three, and four! I think The Recruit will have to perform on the same level to have a hope of renewal. The week two numbers will be interesting. The Lincoln Lawyer had a fantastic 140% growth in week two!

Not much else happening. It was a bad week for the debut scripted shows. Paradise PD s4 (less than 2.5 million) and Glitter (less than 1.8 million) failed to make the charts while A Storm For Christmas did manage to chart with 3.7 million.

Firefly Lane managed 3.5 million in its third week. A 47% drop between weeks two and three. Some analysts point to that number being below 50% as something that Netflix value.

Nothing else worth noting. Next week we have Emily in Paris s3, The Witcher: Blood Origin, and Alice in Borderland to look out for. Though The Witcher spin-off will only get one day of release so we had better temper expectations for that one. No doubt it has a much bigger week 2.

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Western_Camp7920 t1_j135dqu wrote

What's your opinion on 1899? Less than 40m households watched it. Considering 60 m bodget will it get renewed?
Sandman had around 150m budget (15m per episode) and got renewed with less than 50m households watch.
Lookism getting to the top ten for second week is a good sign right? Or was it a week with not much foreign shows?

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lightsongtheold t1_j14m7q8 wrote

1899 finished its four week run with 32.8 million equivalent complete viewings. I’ve tagged 30 million as the target for renewal. Which means 1899 is a bubble show. It should get renewed as it just past the cut-off mark and showed solid legs (which Netflix likes) but as you mention it was an expensive show with an estimate of $8 million per episode so that could work against it.

I feel like this is a real bubble show. I’m leaning towards saying they will renew 1899 but I’ll not be totally surprised if they do not. I’d also not be surprised if it did get a season two with the second season being announced as the final one.

I do hope they renew 1899. It was a good show and the ratings were OK. Deserves at least one more season.

I think the fate of 1899 will be very interesting for informing us on the renewal threshold for Netflix shows.

It is definitely a good sign that Lookism has charted two weeks in a row. Most anime miss the charts. Appearing in the charts is definitely good for its renewal chances. Sonic Prime also just turned in an excellent performance and looks a lock for renewal at this point. Poor Dragon Age doomed. Which is a pity as I quite enjoyed that one after it recovered from a sluggish opening episode to end up a fun D&D style fantasy tale.

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Western_Camp7920 t1_j14vkkg wrote

Thanks for your answer. Really appreciate it.
I also liked 1899, think these creators are one of the few ones I totally follow and hope Netflix continues working with them, even as a prestigious move (like they buy the distribution rights to some award winner movies and documentaries) although the views are not bad as you said.
Haven't checked out Sonic Prime actually. But yeah it's doing pretty good and Netflix will continue it.
I think Castelvania and Arcane had set the bar so high people get easily bored if show doesn't start great. Which is a shame cause I liked the world and Lore of DA.

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Mister_Weiss t1_j13hra3 wrote

Sandman was excellent, I thought. I think people’s idea of what it is, and it IS a little weird, may be keeping it from rising to the top

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Mister_Weiss t1_j13hn8u wrote

Honestly, the Recruit looks terrible. The lead actor looks annoying AF and the writing feels like they’re trying too hard

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lightsongtheold t1_j14l38r wrote

I thought The Recruit was OK but it was definitely a tonally weird show. Felt like it was going after ABC and CW viewers at the same time and probably not managing to satisfy either demo. Also felt like a female skewing show that was trying very hard to appeal to males as well! It was a weird one.

The only thing I’m not worried about in regards to The Recruit is looks of the lead. Women love Noah!

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