Submitted by jdbolick t3_1034t44 in television
There seems to be a substantial amount of confusion regarding why Netflix cancels certain shows while renewing others, but the answer is fairly straightforward. Completion rate, meaning the percentage of people who began watching a show that ended up finishing the entire season, is by far the most important determinant of a show's fate.
Look at Heartstopper and First Kill, two Netflix shows that premiered just over a month apart in 2022. First Kill totaled 97.66 million hours during its first four weeks compared to just 53.4 million hours for Heartstopper during its first four weeks. If hours watched were the most important metric for Netflix renewals then First Kill would have been safe and Heartstopper would have gotten the axe. Instead, the reverse happened.
Completion rate is the answer as to why First Kill was canceled and Heartstopper was renewed. Out of all people who watched the first episode of First Kill, just 66.94% completed the second episode. 58.23% finished the third episode, 54.43% finished the fourth, 51.44% finished the fifth, 48.42% finished the sixth, 44.32% finished the seventh, and 43.11% completed the entire season. Compare that to Heartstopper, where 73% of people who watched the first episode went on to finish the entire season. (Source)
1899 did even better than First Kill in terms of hours watched, which is no surprise as a follow-up to the immensely successful series Dark. But like First Kill, it was canceled anyway, and completion rate conclusively explains why. Described as having ponderous pacing and being generally less entertaining than Dark, 1899 had a shocking completion rate of just 32% (Source). When less than a third of people who started a season end up finishing it, that show is going to get canceled.
The reason Netflix values completion rate so much is because it is a much better indicator of future viewing habits than hours watched. Many fans of Dark tried 1899, but the two thirds who did not finish the season would be unlikely to return for future seasons. At the other end of the scale, a show like Heartstopper with low initial hours watched but a high completion rate may simply need better publicity to get a wider audience. Hours watched tells Netflix how many people heard about the show and decided to give it a chance. Completion rate tells Netflix what percentage of people enjoyed the show.
So let's stop blaming Netflix for canceling things that its own audience decided to abandon. If you want a show to get another season, be sure to finish the previous one.