Submitted by BoringAccountName78 t3_102ajbd in vermont
Hulk_Runs t1_j2tot55 wrote
Reply to comment by TheTowerBard in Burlington had 5 murders in 2022, the most since 1960 by BoringAccountName78
You say they answered my question. Please quote me where they answered what type of data is required and if 20 murders can also be considered a statistical anomaly - because I’m not seeing it. I’m pressing on this because seeing a bump in stats and just calling it a statistical anomaly is not how statistics work - it’s laziness and ignorance dressed as pseudo intellectualism.
VTHockey11 t1_j2ud3h6 wrote
Statistical anomalies and understanding the difference between an anomaly, a trend, etc. Is how statistics work. It's exactly how they work. I've already said this once, but I don't get your argument. It sounds like you are saying we should assume this is the new normal even though we just have one year's worth of data. That isn't how statistics work, and any scientist or data analyst or anyone else with a background in data would tell you that you are incorrectly jumping to conclusions.
_foxmotron_ t1_j2ttxhb wrote
Seeing a one time bump in stats after the stats have remained consistent for X years is the definition of a statistical anomaly. My initial comment literally said “Statistical anomaly until WE HAVE MORE DATA IN THE FUTURE.”
somedudevt t1_j2urzy0 wrote
But who cares if it’s an anomaly today? You are pretending that we shouldn’t act till we have more data. You must work in some corporate job where they just look at data and take no action.
January 6th 2021 had multiple people die in the transfer of power in the US. This was the first time in US history this happened. Statistically that’s an anomaly. But I bet you would agree that there is a problem with our democracy when that happens? Similarly these murders are a symptom of an issue and calling them an anomaly and writing them off is shortsighted and ignoring reality. Everyone sees the issue and anyone who pretends we don’t have data to say there is an issue is trying to avoid the truth.
The issue in a nutshell is drugs, poverty, and police who are afraid of being labeled biased or racist for doing the proactive policing and community outreach needed to reduce the crime.
_foxmotron_ t1_j2us9ie wrote
Care to show where I said we should take no action?
somedudevt t1_j2ut38d wrote
You said it’s an anomaly till we have more data. That is saying that we should wait for data before we think it’s worth addressing. It’s implied in the statement. Gathering more data is inaction. I can’t be alone in recognizing that the entire world is broken… nobody trusts instinct and observation any longer. Everything is crippled by waiting for data, which is then argued over. Look at the world warming and species dying while people argue over data. This is another case of that. It’s an anomaly we don’t need to act. Nobody wants to make a decision and take an action.
_foxmotron_ t1_j2utw2q wrote
That’s you making assumptions about my intent. I’m not responsible for your assumptions.
somedudevt t1_j2uu5ga wrote
So let’s be clear:
Do you believe that there is an issue in need of addressing?
_foxmotron_ t1_j2uuvpw wrote
Do I think that there’s an issue that will lead to a trend in rising murder rates? Probably not. Do I think issues that exist that by solving would probably lower the crime rate in general? One hundred percent.
Hulk_Runs t1_j2txs6v wrote
How many years?
_foxmotron_ t1_j2u38km wrote
However many it takes to see a trend.
“Burlington had more murders in 2022”, and, “There’s no indication that murder rates are on the rise in Burlington” can both be true statements.
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