Submitted by Outrageous-Outside61 t3_102qt6r in vermont
I can’t be the only one who is sick and tired of climate change being brought up every single winter for the last 30 years. Wether it’s someone saying “sure could use some climate change today” when it’s -30 thinking they created the most original joke in history, or the constant posts on here thinking a normal January thaw is some harbinger of doom.
Here is a fun exercise: take the date you were born and look at the global co2 PPM, and then look at today to see how much change has occurred. Then try to guess at what it’ll be when you’re twice your age today! Fun for the whole family
I hate complainers too, so I turned our collective crisis and inaction into a fun game!
I like how you took the time to read my post, yet posted something entirely irrelevant. I’m not denying the existence of climate change at all. But our current January thaw had absolutely nothing to do with it.
I get what you’re saying but I think it’s important that people freak out a little when it’s 55 degrees in Chittenden County on December 31st right after a hurricane force wind storm. It might cause them to think about change, or we can just say “whatever, it’s normal for a thaw”. One of those two actions have the potential to affect change we need right now. But, yeah, you’re right sooo ¯\_ (ツ) _/¯
In your view misinformed hysteria is good if it leads to your desired outcome? Sounds like the same pandering everyone’s doing with “kitty litter boxes in Vermont schools for the furries.”
Personally I think ignorance is pretty dangerous, full stop.
Well we agree to disagree then, and your kitty box example is a wonderful place to end this whole back and forth while also showing where you get your information. Have a great night!
Dude. My point is there are no kitty litter boxes in schools, just like the weather this past week has nothing to do with climate change. Not sure how that went over your head.
Well I’m glad to hear you don’t think any school children identify as cats, but here is an 8 year old video on why the pattern of warmer winter weather shows this is not just a January thaw.
Furthermore we’ve had more days above freezing than below it this winter so far and it’s January now. For it to be a thaw, we would have had to have had something to thaw first.
Here is a cool tool you can run on your desktop to actually watch the jet stream live:
One more great video on this:
Hey man kn4v3VT is being very patient and kind with you.
You should be thanking him for taking the time to actually engage in a civil discourse with you. That’s not what you wanted, tho, is it?
You come off as stubborn and naive and you’ll stay that way forever and probably be proud of it.
Idk about chittenden county, but the grounds still frozen here, minus the couple inches of slop on top.
Yes climate change is happening. In the last 100 years we’ve seen about a 3 degree increase in average temperatures. And waterbodies are thawing about 1.5 days earlier per decade. Once again, not at all denying science here. But we’ve literally had 40 degree days in January most years in the last 30 that I’ve been alive.
Using temperatures in the 40’s in January as an example of climate change is just as ignorant as using -30 temperatures in February as an example of why climate change in non existent.
Anyways, I’m done with the internets for the night. Have a good one!
I’m not a climate scientist, so I will let the NVU met kids tear you down, but your basic premise that warmer weather in the winter is NOT a result of climate change when Burlington is the fasted warming metro in the US is fucking moronic. BTV average daily temperature in winter has risen 7 degrees in the last 50 years. https://www.mychamplainvalley.com/weather/two-degree-difference/two-degree-difference-burlington-has-one-of-the-fastest-warming-winters-in-the-country/amp/
Take a second and look at the lake Champlain freeze record that goes back to 1820 The lake froze fully almost every year for the first 160 years, and has frozen fully 3 times in the last 15 years.
Extremes are the highlight of climate change. More freeze thaw cycles etc. if you spend ANY time outdoors in the winter you will see this change very easily, and it’s happening really time. Year after year it gets a little worse.
Maybe we agree more than you think- just don’t take away from the severity of the problem by downplaying it. Weather is not climate, I agree, but y’all should be freaking out or changing or freaking out to change. Either way, if we don’t do something like ask “why is it so damn warm here?” we are going to suffer together
I literally have worked outside, every day, in Vermont, for the last thirty years. And, once again, January thaws happen pretty much every year.
Anyways, it’s interesting to see your article states a 7 degree increase over 50 years, while the state says 3 degrees over the last 100.
Today's weather is the same as every December for the past 10yrs; maybe going into Jan a few days is not common, but snow never really starts until after the new year and lasts a bit longer into April. Sure, there were random 60deg days in Feb, that's not rare. But for the past 10yrs, there's been a big change.
FWIW, climate change should be "brought up every single" season, winter included. Maybe not the goto cheeky comeback, better than 'woke' weather, i suppose.
Down-easters' (storms moving up from the southeast) used to reach Jay. My driveway would need a frontend loader to move the snow bank back twice/winter.
Now, those storms rarely make it north of Killington/#4. And, the jet stream blowing down from the northwest, one that used to make Montreal/Quebec warmer than Burlington/N.VT are now blowing further south into VT; colder with less precipitation.
And, IMO, this is just a taste of seasons to come, grow zones going up a notch, bug issues, lost resources. Though I appreciate spending less on cordwood and motrin, it comes with a sadface; knowing the impact it'll have on younger local natives.
2030's gonna make 2022 look good by comparison.
In the contrary I’m all for civil discourse. He did however completely misinterpret a lot of my comments. I’d say I’m fairly stubborn, but I read and listen to enough science and history that I wouldn’t consider myself naive. Anything else you would like to know about how I perceive myself?
Read the article it’s winter temp not overal, and it’s Burlington not the state as a whole. For the full year BTV has warmed 4.5 degrees. The state 3. Also yes a January thaw happens. It happens at the end of the month though. You clearly don’t pay any attention when you are working if you don’t notice the difference. Crawl back in your hole of disbelief
Yes. That obviously makes you an expert on climate change and weather patterns. I’m sorry you’ve never had a day off.
In Orange and Washington County I would say I haven’t seen much of a difference in our weather patterns in the last 30 years. We’ve seen a 3 degree increase in average temps over 100 years, which is scary as hell. My biggest concern as someone who works and lives off the land is that slow increase allowing bugs and diseases to come in and effect our ecosystem. I’m completely not denying climate change, but this past weeks weather has nothing to do with that.
> misinformed hysteria is good if it leads ...
Hah, that's a good one. First, I really don't see hysterical people running around in their Dentons going all chicken little. Second, who's misinformed? That countdown clock wrong? Can't believe yer lyin' eyes?
I sincerely hope you're an old boomer cuz I doubt you'll make it through the churn that's coming. And I'm neither misinformed nor hysterical.
> just like the weather this past week has nothing to do with climate change.
This past week, one random day mid-winter.....
Every warm December for the past 10 years has to do with climate change, seen if you're not a juvi idiot.
Sure there's El Nino / La Nina years you could cite as examples of normal cycles; but even those have been affected.
I think you need to give posting a break and get outdoors more.
> I literally have worked outside, every day, in Vermont, for the last thirty years.
So have I. I think you perceive yourself as much the outlier as the rando warm days you cite to cling to a point that is obtusely incorrect. And try as others have to politely inform you why/how, you'd rather trust that perceptivity than take another look and re-consider that you're more wrong and everyone else is more right on this.
> My biggest concern as someone who works and lives off the land is that slow increase allowing bugs and diseases to come in and effect our ecosystem
Any given 'past week' is about as significant to climate as one day is to your health over the course of the year.
Bugs, ya say? I had a homestead north of Jeff and its of great concern for sure. Bees and worms disappearing ... more ticks ... tomato and japanese beetles ... whether its my farm or orchards or hemp or any Ag industry, the new now is obvious.
All this is caused by a warming trend; that's going to continue for the next 50 years.
Including the 'exceptional' day mid-winter when its warmer than usual - its the 'usual' part thats going to be harder getting used to :)
You miss the entire concept of climate change.
Oh and this
As someone who has lived here for 33 years I can tell you there is absolutely a change in our winters and summers that is pretty drastic. Just because you don’t see it or your political leanings don’t allow you to doesn’t mean it’s not happening.
Can't really consider it a thaw when things never really froze to begin with.
just bc you don't get it doesn't mean it's irrelevant.
Not really, our daily weather is very different than climate.
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What county is Europe in? I missed the part where they said anything about Vermont.
Fun fact! Climate happens across the entirety of the planet, and the atmosphere doesn’t recognize international borders. What that means is if it can happen there it can happen here because our CO2 emissions and their CO2 emissions combine when the wind blows. So either humans get over their arbitrary bullshit and get our act together or we’ll all be getting dead together.
“The snow don’t stick but the sweat sure does.” is how I have been summing it up to people in a quip.
Hey OP, give this a listen, based on your other comments I think you’ll enjoy it!! Ologies: Meterology
It seems irrelevant because you don't understand the correlation
I think OP was roughly making a point about the imprecision of language used here and hasn’t made any points that would call into question the realities of climate change. IMHO, precision is terribly important when we talk about this because we stand to lose people when we make statements such as ‘x weather event was caused by climate change’ or, as has been said in other words, ‘a warm snap is blamed on climate change’… Because then it’s just as easy for an ignoramus to state the inverse when it’s cold. None of those statements are data driven.
That’s how I took the post. I understand this is a sensitive issue for all of us but we could all do better in encouraging conversation about how to effectively communicate it.
I’ll listen to it in a bit, always up for a good podcast recommendation.
Saying it’s a “January thaw” would suggest that we’ve already had winter at this point. A couple snowfalls here and there through December, with most of it melting in between, is not typical winter weather if you look back 20-30 years and more. Unless you’re up in elevation, or in the NEK, there is no snowpack or accumulation right now. Looking out the window, this could be a rainy day in April. Zero white stuff. Most lakes aren’t even frozen yet. This is no January Thaw.
Thanks. That is honestly exactly the point I’m trying to make. Not once have I dismissed the reality of climate change in any of my comments, on the contrary as a diversified farmer in Vermont climate change scares the shit out of me and I’m already seeing the need to change practices to adapt for the inevitable.
But it’s equally frustrating to me to see people dismiss climate change on a cold day as it is for people to say “look at this climate change” on a hot day. Weather isn’t climate, and as you said, precision in language is extremely important. But heaven forbid I say anything to that point or I’ll be downvoted and have a million assumptions made about my politics, age, and general ignorance.
Nothing to even thaw, used to be a couple weeks straight in the teens at this point even 10 years ago and its been above 40
I do not in the slightest bit disregard climate change. I’ve had to change forage production calculations and go more towards warm season annuals for grazing instead of my classic cool season perennials. On the forestry side of my operation I’m currently looking at what to do with my 40 acre hemlock plot, as the woolly insect is probably coming to Orange County sooner rather than later. It leaves me questioning how to keep a vital deer yard active when I know they will be losing the crucial part of what makes it a deer yard. Should I cut heavy and plant trees that will make it in the next 40 years, or plan for regen as I always have? It’s also depressing cutting all my ash because it’s better to harvest a healthy tree now while the markets decent than it is to watch it die from the borers.
As you said, the weather in the last week is about as significant to climate as one day of your health is to your lifetime. And I really think it’s important for people to address the actual effects and what we need to do to adapt to climate change instead of freaking out because it’s in the 40’s in January.
Let’s be real, we aren’t going to get our act together. I wish that wasn’t the case, but climate change is going to cause more conflict not greater cooperation.
Yes, it can happen here just like it’s happening there, but my point is that it’s not happening here. Saying things are an effect of climate change when they aren’t doesn’t move people towards adapting to climate change and making the correct responses, IMO it instead moves people to dismiss climate change.
It is happening here, it’s a global problem regardless of where the symptoms present themselves. If you have chicken pox, you don’t point at the area of skin inbetween the red bumps and say “no bump here, I am not sick”.
It seems you’re trying to say “you’re not using 💯 precision in the way you present climate change and this is off putting to some people and counter productive.” And you’re right, we are generally never super precise when we communicate complicated problems as a society. Humans tend to simplify concepts to improve the ability to communicate the main idea. If this is something that bothers you, don’t poke the bear online and get grumpy when it growls at you.
If you mean to say that by simplifying climate change on Reddit I am going to cause people to take it less seriously- sure that may happen but honestly it doesn’t matter. If I get just one more person to think about it just a little more I’ve achieved my goal. It’s here, it’s happening, it’s happening to Vermont (ask your local ski resort what they’re seeing). I don’t care if you think todays weather is not because of global climate change - the big picture is what’s important, and being proactively alarmist about this problem is better than saying it’s not happening in my back yard so it’s not my problem. Again you’re being very precise with your argument, but you’re not accurate.
It feels like the seasons have 'shifted' a couple of months. But, that is just my 40 years of personal experience/opinion without actually looking at any data.
That was a good podcast. I’ll be a new subscriber! I like the analogy of weather being the mood.
Respectfully disagree that it’s a good idea to chalk things up to ignorance and ignore it. I hate to go down the whole ‘in a democracy… informed electorate… yada yada’ thing so we can table that… but if you want to be taken seriously and not just get an agreeing nod from buddies at the bar or at the barbershop then I’d say it’s important for respectful critique as to bend your statements closer to the accurate truth. In this case, not a climate scientist, but it’s actually a major difference (climate vs weather). Like the difference between the type of car and the specific model. I’m sure you could come up with a major difference in your specialties that appear to an outsider superficial.
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I like that. Borrowing it
I'm glad our convo got to this point because the way you put your original argument seemed to give short shrift to the new reality. That the odd weather day was unrelated; it is, insofar as it will only be odder.
I'd about given up on annuals completely and went perennials whereever possible. Ash is sad, hemlock too. Have you had/asked a forester to pay a visit, its free. Same with coop Xtension.
Horticulture-wise, If you have the space/ability/inclination ... I would suggest you get a beehive or two. Free-range guineas (or chickens) are a big plus too for aeration and killing ticks. I.E. think synergistic where able.
Good Luck!
We commercially raise hogs and beef. About 1200 butcher weight hogs and 60 finished beef per year, farm about 500 acres and have around 200 acres of woodlands. I also work part time on a 40k tap maple operation. I work with a forester constantly, and we’ve had a lot of conversations about shifting species and how to manage for the inevitable.
With the annuals/perennials I’ve found that our cool season perennials just aren’t doing as well, and I’m planting more warm season annuals following the pig rotations to be grazed off, instead of trying to get my perennial rotation started immediately, 20 years ago we didn’t have the climate to do that IMO.
As far as my initial comments, I just truly find it extremely frustrating how people on both sides of the debate can’t separate weather from climate. I’m not at all a climate change denier, I just believe that being accurate matters.
Spread it around! Try and sound like a Florida cracker for me when you say it though 😂
Glad you liked it! Alie Ward is a gifted science communicator and chooses really great guests who really dedicate their lives to the fields they are working in. Sometimes I learn things that connect two topics and my brain goes “brrrrrr!” Stay warm out there OP!
> can’t separate weather from climate
I get that. And I was just homesteading, living off land; with chickens, rabbits, summer pigs.... You're on a whole other level, problems different from, say, a dairy farmer but in same boat as them (succession, COL, markets...). Good luck to you!
FWIW, since you're doing beef (angus?), maybe look into raising mini-deer; a few years back it looked kind of promising. Back in my advocacy days (dealing mostly with issues regarding high feed costs, low cull prices, difficulty finding help, succession...) I realized that VT does grass best; and pity that the 400K lamb carcas market from Boston-to-Baltimore was lost to the New Zealanders :(
Had a pitch to fix that but it was too much of a stretch.
We primarily raise dairy beef crosses, but from some friends that are still milking who AI their bottom 80% of the herd to beef and use sexed semen on the top 20% of their herd for replacements. We do have about 20 cow calf Herefords, but in general it’s more economical to raise a “waste product” aka dairy bull calves, and kind of completes a missing loop in the food chain.
Captive cervid farming scares the shit out of me, as captive deer have been the primary spreader of CWD, which as an avid hunter I’m very concerned about. But lamb is something we may be diversifying into as well, possibly this coming year. We’ve also thrown around the idea of doing a value added dairy product, but we are on year two of going off on our own and I want to get the pork expansion figured out first (it’s primarily just me, we have two very young children so my wife doesn’t do an awful lot with the farm)
Anyways, it’s been nice chatting with you! Hope you get the ruts smoothed out around your place before it freezes back up this week!
As a Vermonter who works in agriculture whose livelihood is being threatened by climate change in the fall and winter months.
Fuck you.
> captive deer have been the primary spreader of CWD,
Hadn't considered that, my info was kinda stale.
> lamb is something we may be diversifying into
Good luck with that. Friends at Grayrock farm did sheep for decades; tough nut to crack if not at scale.
> doing a value added dairy product
Value-added and niche products are likely what's going to save or preserve small farmers; and (sadly) having local markets that can afford those higher prices. (Have you considered hemp?)
For the record, wife-n-me sold the homestead 1.5yrs ago and moved to Maine. Besides issues of age and the labor involved keeping a big(ish) place, the burden if anything happened to either one of us, ..., the COL just got too high to make sense staying.
My sister works a good sized dairy farm down near Castleton; they're organic and getting by, but the grind is real. You're a true VT farmer, whether inherited or of the 'gentleman' variety. Its a dying breed and is what's preserved that pastoral look which attracts so much tourism. Succession this next decade is going to be a challenge at best to stave off even more consolidation. Good luck in your endeavors!
Thanks for taking the time to read through my comments. I’m literally a farmer and Vermonter as well. I don’t disregard climate change in the slightest, however, weather and climate are two different things.
As someone who didn't live here 100 years ago, but can look at recorded history, I can see that we get more snow now than we did then
Agreed, brother!
I get what you're saying, but at the same time there are varying degrees of this and it isn't all inaccurate.
Take the "January thaw" example. Sure, "January thaw"'s happen most years, but they have increased in number and duration.
In Chittenden county we've barely had more than a dozen days below freezing. Ya, I'll complain about the unseasonably warm weather and how it's most likely because of climate change, even if I can't say for sure.
Funny. As someone who only grew up in the late 90's, I can say we had more snow stick around even just 20 years ago. I'd love to see your source for historical snowfall totals.
I can’t be the only one who is sick and tired of people listening to the angry man on tv that tells them to be annoyed when people bring up perfectly valid things like climate change every single winter for the last 30 years.
Honestly, the willful ignorance as everything goes to shit around us is getting very old. Let’s do better. We shouldn’t be triggered by the mention of climate change at this point.
It’s cute that you’re annoyed about the last 30 years, but this is a conversation that started in like 1910. Nineteen friggin ten, my dudes. It’s time to remove our collective heads from our collective asses and take it seriously. It’s past time, actually.
You you are completely incorrect in almost all of your statements.” weather.” as you refer to. It is not the environment you were only discussing a few factors of the environment, the water cycle and air temperature. There is also the pressure of the air. There are so many other factors that are involved in the environment just to let you know, environmental scientist I’ve given up and now, looking for a place to hide.
What angry man on TV? It’s cute that you think I’m ignoring climate change, must be a decent mental workout to get there. Congratulations on the effort, in a time when so few people put any in.
Kinda need to stick them on a graph to observe any trends. Makes me want to put the data in excel- I might just do that...
I managed a dairy farm in chittenden county about 17 years ago, I’ll never forget grazing cows into mid December. Not having to worry much about frozen water through that whole time either. Chittenden county is the banana belt of VT. In Orange County there’s still snowpack on the ground today, even after last nights rain.
We’ve increased 3 degrees on average in the last 100 years, and shortened freeze ups by an average of three weeks. I don’t disagree that that’s bad and going to get worse, but it doesn’t mean last weeks weather was climate change.
Also, snowfall totals aren't necessarily a good metric. Temps around freezing result in more precipitation, but less long term "sticking around" when the temps get above freezing.
(My point being we see plenty of big dumps of snow that usually melt in a few days or a week)
Burlington in particular has increased by 7 degrees. Haven't read into why Burlington is so unique, maybe the lake or geography.
It's a statistical thing, not black and white. Climate change increased the probability and ultimately the severity of last week's weather. There's still a chance it could've happened without all the excess CO2, but it would've been less likely.
You literally said elsewhere that you don’t deny climate change, you’re just tired of hearing about it. That’s literally ignoring it. Literally. Speaking of mental workouts… my god dude bro.
Once again for the guys in the back, WEATHER IS NOT CLIMATE CHANGE. Believe it or not being correct in how you speak actually matters.
I don’t ignore or disregard climate change in the slightest, I’m just not dumb enough to blame the daily weather on climate.
This is like saying you don’t mind talking about coffee but don’t you dare bring up coffee beans. That’s what you sound like. It’s completely absurd and childish.
I’m so sorry you got triggered by adults discussing a very important matter. I hope you can pull through.
A conversation about climate change would be talking about species changes in trees in the near future, how to properly manage that transition and what it means for our native wildlife, how to build resilience into our food systems, how to produce and conserve energy while still growing as a technological society. All shit I’m totally down to talk about. Bitching about a couple days in the 40’s in January and calling it climate change is ignorance. I guess if I’m triggered by anything, it’s your ignorance.
Right back at you. Imagine spending this much time tantruming about people discussing climate change at times you deem inappropriate. Please forgive us, my lord.
*discussing the weather and calling it climate change.
There, fixed it for you
So fragile.
Take a gander at the Mt. Washington snow stake depth, you’ll see that accumulation there hasn’t changed. It’s actually pretty fascinating to see.
I guess it wouldn't surprise me much that the tallest mountain in the northeast hasn't seen a reduction in accumulation.
It certainly doesn't stick like it used to at any of the ski resorts in central Vermont (my hometown).
Either way it’s interesting to see. Idk of another place that has a record of snowpack with as much data. Not a skier, but pulling taps in the spring some years really makes you appreciate how much snow accumulation we still get (also in central VT, my hometown as well)
I can't remember the last time the lake froze. 2013-14 maybe.
hunny_bun_24 t1_j2uqw7x wrote
I like warmer weather