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VisualMod t1_jaa7e24 wrote

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Total Submissions 2 First Seen In WSB 2 years ago
Total Comments 2647 Previous Best DD
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VisualMod t1_jaa7eso wrote

  1. Excessive prosperity is a cause of the 1907 Panic because it results in people becoming overextended and taking on too much debt. This can lead to defaults and foreclosures, which can trigger a financial crisis.
  2. High cost of living is a cause of the 1907 Panic because it increases the costs of goods and services, which makes it more difficult for consumers to make ends meet. This can lead to decreased spending, which can hurt businesses and trigger a recession.
  3. Readjustment of values to higher rates of interest is a cause of the 1907 Panic because it makes borrowing more expensive, which can discourage investment and consumption spending. This can lead to economic contraction and job losses, setting off a downward spiral in economic activity
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CreepingFog OP t1_jaa7f76 wrote

There is nothing new under the sun, there is always some shit happening in the world and yet the US stock market has always persevered.

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RunningForIt t1_jaa7ph7 wrote

1907 - “High cost of living”

100 years later - “high cost of living”

100 years from now - “high cost of living”

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potatersupreme t1_jaa8m2v wrote

Talking shit about the wealthy!
Corruption in high finance High finance fighting high finance Over producing of securities!! Phantom shares back then too!!

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Malevin87 t1_jaaav9j wrote

Replying to CreepingFog (#2,079,605)

In the past China is weak. Now China is extremely strong and wealthy to challenge US in infrastructure and tech. China may still be behind US in tech, but they are ahead in infrastructure. America have been complacent for far too long as a world power and have to accept that the world have 3 world powers now. US, China and South East Asia countries combined.

−6

Kitten_Team_Six t1_jaabeyl wrote

Excessive prosperity was owning more than one light bulb

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KarmicComic12334 t1_jaac43w wrote

8 stands out in its absence. After the 08 crash they even made movies to warn people who weren't reading the financials at the time. If bad practices are poisoning the market, anyone who reveals the weakness will be cut off and left to die while those who praise the beauty of the emperor's clothes until the bottom falls through will get bailed out.

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Warlover1 t1_jaaccyh wrote

What the book says is when the poor make money the economy crashes.

153

Washout22 t1_jaafivm wrote

Replying to Malevin87 (#2,080,619)

China is not as strong as many think.

Their demographics are terrible, and they have a huge debt and currency problem while the usd is getting stronger.

Bad for all other currencies.

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NagatoKami t1_jaafp5y wrote

With the only difference that back then money had some value. Now it's just another Ponzi scheme. We are good as long as the US is able to force those investments in (bigger loans to pay the old ones) until we aren't. Hope I'm alive to see it when it's over and what the bankers will come up with next.

0

Royal-Application708 t1_jaagqqm wrote

Well #5 is not an issue at all. Everything is fucking deregulated!! Corporate greed and extreme profits is the real problem. That and the fact that corporations (with their unlimited campaign contributions) own the world and government.

−1

_foldLeft t1_jaahasp wrote

San Francisco could use another earthquake tbh

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runsanditspaidfor t1_jaajai8 wrote

I’m not convinced the majority of America is experiencing excessive prosperity right now.

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monk8919 t1_jaal755 wrote

This is too real for this sub wtf? Thought I was looking at r/investing for a second

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Malevin87 t1_jaam9x6 wrote

Replying to Washout22 (#2,081,998)

Its just that America is not as strong as many Americans think they are. In fact in Asia, many would rather welcome Chinese than Americans as Americans no longer have the wealth. They also rather choose Chinese companies to build infrastructure for them. Not because its cheap, but its quality as well. America have nothing to show for except military. This is why their common folks are suffering.

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RedditsFullofShit t1_jaangzf wrote

Replying to Malevin87 (#2,084,017)

Common folks have always suffered everywhere.

It’s not like 50 years ago there wasn’t poverty in the US. The poverty has always been there. And in capitalism there will always be those who suffer.

The US is so advanced in warfare that economics don’t really matter. If it really came down to it the US would go to war and win.

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Washout22 t1_jaao9ro wrote

Replying to Malevin87 (#2,084,017)

North America has plenty of food and other natural resources. Lots of navigable rivers, and better demographics.

We have more purchasing power per capita.

China is in for a world of hurt as the USA and West decouples.

Globalization helped China immensely. They're now trying to pivot to a service based economy with half the population in poverty.

I have no issue with China, but they're not in a good spot

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PaulR504 t1_jaaquiz wrote

The cycle repeats as designed by the real owners of this country. Plebs need to be put in their place every so often.

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hahaa242 t1_jaaryq0 wrote

“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”

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yamazaki25 t1_jaat2e2 wrote

Replying to Malevin87 (#2,080,619)

Doesn’t China have a major dam failure that kills tens of thousands and displaces a quarter million people like every other week due to the lack of engineering oversight and use of poor construction materials?

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hendysae34 t1_jaatap7 wrote

The players life the game of Life decide the route they want to take and then move their vehicle tokens around the gameboard as they go from Start to Retirement. Who is going to have a lot of money and success?

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tigerkingsam t1_jaauq1s wrote

You only get rid of the sticky inflation we have now through high unemployment rates and decimation of home prices and stock valuations. Bernard Arnault, owner of LVMH being the richest man in the World should tell you consumption has gone off the rails into excess. Where the monthly mortgage for a 600k home with 20% down is 4k. We will see the market collapse like in the past when everyone realizes how much pain we have to go through to overcome sticky inflation. JPow will be the most hated man in the World but he will undoubtly give the chemo therapy that the market needs to live. Buls will be in breadlines EOY.

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Painty_The_Pirate t1_jaayfvt wrote

Replying to Painty_The_Pirate (#2,087,197)

Nvm poor people definitely play a role, I just had ChatGPT estimate the total amount of invested capital in the US that's in retirement accounts...it came up with ~4 trillion in 2019 just for households headed by someone 55-64. That's 10% of the S&P's total market cap TODAY (still slightly higher than 2019).

−22

Sisboombah74 t1_jaayixr wrote

Are you honestly trying to compare the complexity of todays economy with one from 110 years ago?

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Malevin87 t1_jab9waz wrote

Replying to yamazaki25 (#2,086,014)

America have dams failure too with one that happened in 2020. I been to both America and China. The infrastructure in the US are in such a bad shape compare to China. I think Americans should not be a frog in the well. Travel more and you realise how good China infrastructure is. Even their 2nd tier and 3rd tier cities are better than New York. The only people who thinks America infrastructure are better than China are the ones who do not travel. Even Japan and South Korea and Singapore are ahead of America.

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V6TransAM t1_jabg19a wrote

Roosevelt was a two faced lying douche of a politician. And leave my boy Harriman out of it, they never got a damned thing on him. In fact everything he said came to pass years later once again. Dumbass government.

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yamazaki25 t1_jabi5st wrote

Replying to Malevin87 (#2,091,037)

It’s easy to build things in blood. And since China does its best to cover up any and every single disaster that occurs, the world will never know how many people have truly died due to the lack of regulation. I’d take my chances on a place that doesn’t have to cover up disasters, even if it has less “stuff.” I’ve been to several countries. I know what the differences in infrastructure can look like. But there is a reason why NYC is the finance capital of the world. And there is a reason why LA is essentially the cultural capital of the world. People don’t move from LA or NY to China to find a better, safer, more fulfilling life. They do the opposite, in fact. You could build your streets with diamonds and gold and I’d still never take my chances entering the country of China.

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SpiritualTwo5256 t1_jabiwjv wrote

Every time people panic, it causes problems. The markets are causing messes. Or more accurately enabling abusers to take money out of manufactured crisis.

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TopXKiller t1_jabjomt wrote

Enjoy your Solar Storm EMP Millennials

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ChampionshipLow8541 t1_jabk3zy wrote

Progress of socialistic sentiment? How does that relate to today? It’s the opposite: continued widening of the wealth gap. 5 million kids in the US that go hungry. People can’t afford health care. 🤦‍♂️

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anon6966669 t1_jabsix8 wrote

massive san francisco earthquake confirmed

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Adept_Particular_274 t1_jabu4zf wrote

Replying to NagatoKami (#2,082,065)

Money itself is a ponzi scheme, the gold standard was fake as well, what gives gold value? It is a shiny metal that looks nice I guess. You could substitute anything that is rare for gold. Gold is worthless and has been for a long time. Money has value because you can buy things with it. The US economy is not a Ponzi scheme. Ponzi schemes are run by people who steal money. The government can create money that has value any time they want and they do an excellent job managing the money supply.

The US has the strongest most powerful economy in the world because of the Federal Reserve and because we have the smartest workers in the world working here. That will not change for decades. The US rules the world and we have no competition and it is not even close.

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cletus_ t1_jabzwrf wrote

Bad practices in high finance? 😂

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Updogfoodtruck t1_jaccu12 wrote

And can you believe that people are talking shit about the railroads? East Palestine better get their act together or this market is gonna crash, say nice things about norfolk southern, or we are doomed!

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purple_hamster66 t1_jacgpxp wrote

This doesn’t apply to today’s situation:

  • corporations are swimming in excessive profits; largely, regulation has not affected their ability to swindle consumers
  • unemployment is really low today
  • only 10-15% (of the US population) are experiencing a “high cost of living” relative to home prices. Basically, the young (18-25) and the poor.
  • renewable energy is making energy way cheaper.
  • WFH (Work From Home) is cheaper for workers.
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dog3_10 t1_jackmdn wrote

I love that these were written in 1922, I think that is a good comparison to where we are today and where we are headed

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lrrc49 t1_jacll67 wrote

The 1% have been worried about the same things for over a century!

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WesternBackground47 t1_jact531 wrote

You could be forgetting:

Inflation

50-60 year global unemployment rates

Trillions of stimulus pumped into system

Trillions of debt unable to withstand high interest rates

Central bank policy focused on curbing inflation no matter the cost to the economy

Corporate profit at all time highs yet corporations dont pay taxes to local governments

90 year old president who cant string a sentence together

Opposition party seems to be filled with a bunch of lunatics as front runners

Potential for nuclear war

CHINA

CLIMATE

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PIK_Toggle t1_jacxn2v wrote

Well, this was in an era before the Federal Reserve existed, and it is why we have a Federal Reserve Bank.

While it's always fun to fund historical parallels, it's all a bit of a stretch.

You'd be better off looking at the Spanish Flu of 1918 for a comp.

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Johnathonathon t1_jad0abn wrote

Apparently the railroad bubble was huge! I can't remember how many miles of excess track was being built but I thinks something like only 40% were routes popular enough to be profitable. The others were railroads to nowhere

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CreepingFog OP t1_jad3vt5 wrote

Replying to Johnathonathon (#2,108,250)

Yeah, they constructed railroads that led from nowhere to nowhere. They did so not because of a profitable market opportunity, but due to numerous investors driven by FOMO who were handing them their money. And since these companies were not generating any revenue and relied solely on investor capital, the bubble eventually popped as you said. Very similar to what we have been seeing with the tech industry recently.

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ricosuave79 t1_jadlzt7 wrote

History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.

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dkrich t1_jaeb90b wrote

How is the bank contagion from the failed attempt to corner the copper market not make this list? If you read confessions of a stock operator he paints a very clear portrait that basically says there was no liquidity after everyone got margin called

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Superb-Ad3945 t1_jaebwdk wrote

Replying to CreepingFog (#2,109,485)

Like it 2000. I saw some dd where the events of the economy match every 70-80 years. As that is how long it takes for people to die and lessons learned to be lost. Perhaps people live longer now. I think 2008 was not a black swan event but really just getting back to long term average. But the governments would not allow it. So here we are. And the government might not get a say this time

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Autoboat t1_jaeewyd wrote

Replying to BullyBumble (#2,095,393)

lol wut. The US economy is objectively more regulated than it ever has been before. The federal government creates literally thousands of regulations every single year and has been doing so for decades.

https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R43056.pdf

https://www.quantgov.org/visualizations-of-rd-32

https://www.thepolicycircle.org/brief/government-regulation/

https://regulatorystudies.columbian.gwu.edu/brief-history-regulation-and-deregulation

But please feel free to provide any counter-evidence that things are somehow becoming less regulated overall.

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