Yah man there is a recession lurking around which will get priced in stock market in 2023-24. Timing it will be so hard. No machine or technical analysis can ever tell you that coz then otherwise everybody will be so rich.

As for your arguments yah i completely agree with you. Also you can add refinancing in that list. A lot of companies financed in low interest rate so how deep the rabbit hole runs will all shall be revealed by 2024. Don't forget the Fed selling MBS and housing market getting weak by 2024.