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BobbyP27 t1_ja759bm wrote

Reply to comment by bjarkov in Putin casts war as a battle for Russias survival by R1ckCrypto

If that's what counts as a "win", then it does not bode well for Russia in the longer term if they do. The best they would get out of that is something like the situation in Northern Ireland, which involved decades of terrorist insurgency type fighting, and was only sort of resolved when the UK agreed to significant concessions of both autonomy and an agreed potential path to a united Ireland. Is Russia prepared to endure that?

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bjarkov t1_ja77ir9 wrote

I don't disagree with you. The conflict and the consequences are far-reaching and infeasible, with no good way back to normality.

But to Russian autocrats, this conflict is becoming a matter of honor. Putin (and probably his successor) will be committed to seeing this through, until the conflict reaches a state where a peace plan involving territorial concessions to Russia is acceptable to Ukraine and the west. I worry that the conflict will continue (and possibly escalate) for years before we've reached that state. At which point your scenario of insurgency kicks in.

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