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Monkfich t1_ja8dstp wrote

On the surface great, but this can easily be turned around and presented as an attack on Belarus (or its ally - its both the same militarily) by Ukraine. Then that’s just what Putin needed to pressure Belarus to attack.

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Infamous_Employer_85 t1_ja8pgyl wrote

> Belarus

ain't doing shit, the military would go AWOL immediately if Lukashenko ordered them into Ukraine.

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Uniquitous t1_ja8gkct wrote

I think he would've managed somehow. Better to just go ahead and fight the war that will inevitably wind up involving them anyway.

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Monkfich t1_ja8nqz1 wrote

It’s not inevitable that Belarus gets directly involved, and if they do it opens a huge amount of border to defend against. It’s not a border to go across and bring battles towards the Belarus capital, but instead makes the country need much more manpower to defend than currently, which is better spent defending elsewhere and better still - attacking, and taking back land.

So it’s not a war they can push forward on initially - initially it’ll be an attempted massive push by Belarus and Russia. And if Belarus gets directly involved it will be a massive setback, thinning the Ukrainian defence, ruling out the ability to strike back, and minimising the big morale boosts when towns and cities are retaken.

The article says that Russia has no comment on this, but like every single attack on them, they will use it as an opportunity, e.g. find any non-strategic town that the two Belarusians allegedly fled to, then destroy it with barrages for two weeks.

I get the thumping of the chest, the feeling of striking back, and making the enemy power bleed. But it needs to be coordinated with official forces or it risks everything.

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LeftLane4PassingOnly t1_ja9vo5j wrote

You seem to overlook the part where it's 50/50 that Belarus militants are actually Belarus military.

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Monkfich t1_ja9xp4g wrote

I’m not overlooking it, it could be a false flag and probably was, with the military working out what they could destroy as bait. Or maybe nothing was destroyed at all.

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drogoran t1_ja8pjr5 wrote

then so be it

perhaps then europe and the "west" will stop their ineffective barking and actually start biting

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Monkfich t1_ja8x0av wrote

Don’t make the mistake of thinking that europe and the west is doing the wrong thing by only using it’s “bark”. If it were to bite, it would create a huge escalation not just in Russia, but across cities and towns (non-strategic too, Putin like to pick them and blow them up to make a “point”) which would create a wartime population. On the event of decisions to send massive forces to Ukraine, Putin may decide to use heavier weapons , heavier shells, heavier missiles, and we know he likes to throw bodies at a problem.

Arguably Putin wouldn’t surrender/cancel his special operation even if pushed back to the borders by a larger and stronger force. He is an evil fucker but he knows how to play an enemy and wait them out. Or maybe the new Allies push forward to Moscow to topple Putin there? Extra escalation and as an attack has now been made on Russian soil, all Allied countries can expect an attack on their soil too.

And Belarus? Their army will likely support perceived attacks on their own soil, to get them into the wider war. We had that attack today, and Putin can orchestrate more.

We “all” want Ukraine to win, but it won’t win by creating nuke targets inside and outside of Ukraine. The Allied countries maybe aren’t biting directly, but they are sending an awful lot of equipment, weapons, and ammunition to Ukraine.

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