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eetuu t1_j605eub wrote

Reply to comment by jadeddog in Norway will send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. The goverment is planning a larger contribution that will span several years. by Noxzen

How many men is Ukraine losing? Will they evantually run out of manpower?

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Drgntrnr t1_j608qbq wrote

A lot, but they also have a lot, and a population that is extremely willing to fight. They will be able to get and train people.

Millions fled Russia in the “partial” mobilization, so it seems unlikely to me that they’ll be able to get enough people for a full scale mobilization; especially as the economy worsens, and the war continued to slog on.

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Oerthling t1_j60bte5 wrote

What people also tend to forget is that Russia is a huge country with some potentially scary neighbors and regions that might take advantage of the situation if local army presence goes down. So while Russia has more population it also has a lot of border area and regions where they need to keep a strong military presence.

Ukraine OTOH has only 1 country to worry about (plus possibly Belarus, but the Belarusian army is tiny and needed to keep its dictator in power.

Thus in practice the size and population difference is much less relevant than it looks at first sight.

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Drgntrnr t1_j60ccpn wrote

And they’ll be able to maintain that defense easily with all the troops they have parked over in Ukraine. No issues defending if you’re not busy attacking.

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DlSSATISFIEDGAMER t1_j61n3ek wrote

also worth noting that Russian mobilizations are pulling workers out of the economy which effectively lowers their GDP and puts more hurt on the economy. And it can't take many more rounds of mobilization before it goes into the shitter. Then they might be back to Yeltsin-era levels of economically fucked.

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FnordFinder t1_j63f8jd wrote

Not just GDP but it takes tax revenue right out of the governments coffers when they need it the most. It becomes a cycle of self-injury that will only get worse the longer it continues.

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Lazorgunz t1_j60njpz wrote

the current trend is that russia gets worse trained and equipped troops while Ukraine gets better trained and equipped troops. I doubt the initially high losses on Ukraine's side where a lot of territorial defense units were holding back the 'best' russia had will be repeated.

Russia's best is long dead, while thousands of western trained troops flood to Ukraine's front lines. Add modern APCs, IFVs and now MBTs, the tech advantage is becoming extremely one sided. Dont forget, even now, Russia has more troops, arti, tanks etc than Ukraine, and the losses have been steadily decreasing in relation to russia's based of best guesses by unaffiliated sources

In 6 months to a year, itl be an Iraq style turkeyshoot.

Ukraine has lost around what russia has, very roughly. so 125k? they have millions of recruits. Last i heard they were still turning people down because they just arent able, even with western help, to train everyone that wants to fight.

Morale for the fight is still sky high in Ukraine. while they have overall less manpower, they wont run out for years yet. were talking several million people still willing but not able to get into uniform

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ApostrophesForDays t1_j613g6y wrote

I don't think Ukraine has lost as many troops as Russia has. Perhaps you saw that Ukraine has high casualties and thought that meant "killed"? Because casualties is a broader term that includes killed, but also includes wounded, missing, or otherwise out of action. I could believe Ukrainian casualties are 125k maybe. Many do get wounded. But unlike their Russian counterparts, they often get proper medical treatment and many even get to go back into the fight. Russians get left to die. Likewise, Russians killed is definitely over 100k by now. The rest that counts as casualties is likely an even bigger number.

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Lazorgunz t1_j613npn wrote

yea my bad, did indeed use Ukrainian casualyies vs ruzzian KIA

either way, that just further points at the mismatch

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WildSauce t1_j614zc2 wrote

France in early 1914 and Ukraine in early 2022 had effectively the same population, about 40 million people. France suffered 1.4 million dead and 4.2 million wounded in WWI. Ukraine so far has suffered somewhere around 100k total casualties.

It is extremely difficult to break a modern nation through sheer body count. You might be able to break the political will to fight, but it would take a very, very long time for this war to burn itself out through casualties alone.

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paulusmagintie t1_j61895v wrote

Can't really compare to WW1 or 2 since that was an all out total war with pretty much every country going 100% for 6 years.

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torlesse t1_j61vo2a wrote

Umm, Ukraine is in total war. All their major cities are getting bombed, you think some are just relaxing at home like how the Americans were during the 20 year Afghan war?

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paulusmagintie t1_j622qtd wrote

WW1 toral War was 60,000 dead in one battle in a day.

They are just not comparable.

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MetzgerWilli t1_j666hfd wrote

Those battles were the absolute exception though. Even in WW1 few areas and days saw anything close to 60k deaths

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WildSauce t1_j61c7u8 wrote

Ukraine today is in much the same position as France in WWI, being under invasion from a neighbor who poses an existential threat. But I do agree that Russia does not compare, because their people do not have that sort of strong reason to wish for continued war. High casualties very well may lead to the end of the war through political defeat in Russia.

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FarawayFairways t1_j610j8o wrote

> How many men is Ukraine losing? Will they evantually run out of manpower?

Casualty rates are often reported as being broadly equal, so it could come down to a crude equation of whether Ukraine can retake territory before Russia would inevitably win a numbers game

At the moment Ukraine has been able to regain territory at a rate to suggest that they can get over the line. If the front deadlocks though, then that becomes a different equation

What happens however if they push Russia up to their border? Does Russia continue firing from the other side? In which case does Ukraine then have to cross the border?

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Jacc3 t1_j62psm8 wrote

Neither Ukraine nor Russia seem to show a lack of manpower anytime soon. The issue for both sides are mostly material, which much depends on how aid Ukraine will get and how large Russia's weapon stockpiles actually are.

> What happens however if they push Russia up to their border? Does Russia continue firing from the other side? In which case does Ukraine then have to cross the border?

Ukraine has already been attacking military targets in Russia proper, so that's definitely something they'd continue to do if Russia refuses to give up. Sending troops in any significant number over the border seems unlikely tho.

But I doubt that would be an issue. If Russia would lose the war that hard, war support would probably be quite low in all classes of society.

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CDNChaoZ t1_j63ladv wrote

Ukrainians are motivated, down to the last person, be it senior, woman, or child. Russians, not so much.

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HouseOfSteak t1_j63mgpd wrote

Are Ukrainian casualty rates including Ukrainian civilians, or just its military?

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FM-101 t1_j60hymh wrote

People are fleeing russia because of the war.
People are flocking to Ukraine because of the war

Yes, russia has more people but they are mostly unmotivated and will become even less motivated and willing as time goes on.
For Ukraine its the opposite. In terms of manpower Ukraine will be fine in the end.

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